Bettors seeing value in positions for Illinois to win national title

LAS VEGAS — The question of whether Illinois is an elite hoops squad might best be solved by the wallet, by those who have purchased a futures ticket on the Illini to either make the Final Four or win it all.

Tyler Wyatt, a professional bettor in Knoxville, Tennessee, who runs an extensive operation, constantly monitoring multiple computer and television screens for advantages, believes Illinois could be top of the tree.

At Caesars, he nabbed a 50-to-1 ticket on the Illini to win the national title. Circa Sports had it 27-1, informing Wyatt that he had obtained value.

“I certainly think the Illini have a better than 2% implied chance of winning it all, since 50-1 implies a 1.96% chance,” he said. “Anytime I have a position somewhere and Circa has it in my favor, I’m OK with it.”

On Wednesday, DraftKings had Illinois title odds at 35-1, +800 for the Final Four. The question of being elite, however, is subjective, changing like the wind.

“I don’t know how many ‘elite’ teams there are,” Wyatt said. “I have 20 within two possessions, or six points, of each other on a neutral floor. Almost my entire top 50 power-rated teams are within a single-digit spread of each other.”

DEEP-RUN ODDS

Every Sunday, I update a college hoops notebook with figures and statistics, starting with, atop a fresh page, a group of teams that are among the nation’s top 10% in both defensive and offensive efficiency.

Typically, that’s about a dozen squads. The elite. As a caveat, I underline those that are also among the top 10% in covering the spread. The super elite.

In the ensuing betting week, I heed those particular teams. Often, Illinois is on that list, but it has been underlined only once. Defending champion UConn has been a regular, too, and I invested two title units in the Huskies at 16-1.

On Dec. 19 at the Westgate SuperBook, I got a 40-1 title ticket on the Illini and +950 (bet $100, say, to win $950) on them to make the Final Four.

I am heavy on UConn, and Big East brethren Creighton and Marquette, and Tennessee, too, with Final Four and title tickets.

Cashing in on such positions certainly requires luck, since brackets won’t be released for another two weeks. That’s where enviable odds can create latter-round hedging opportunities, for punters inclined to guarantee profit.

In general, Wyatt avoids tying up capital for months. The NCAA Tournament, though, has irresistible lures. He also has title tickets on Tennessee (32-1), Creighton (30-1) and Kentucky (14-1).

“Obviously, without seeing a bracket, it’s hard to say for sure where [Illinois] should go,” Wyatt said, “but I think this is certainly a team capable of making an Elite Eight run.”

BATTLE-TESTED ILLINI

Illinois, No. 10 on stats guru Ken Pomeroy’s chart of all 362 Division-I programs entering the week, has been cashing for those who favor points, since 15 of 17 games out of the weekend had finished over their totals.

The Illini hadn’t dropped consecutive games, and they’ve played a solid schedule, losing at home to Marquette (71-64), beating Florida Atlantic (98-89) on a neutral floor and losing at Tennessee 86-79.

They earned further points last Saturday by beating Iowa 95-85. Today, Illinois plays at Wisconsin, No. 22 on the KenPom chart.

“For the most part, they’ve avoided no-showing at games this season,” Wyatt said. “The loss to Maryland at home was a tough one, and at Penn State. But we don’t have to look far to see other teams losing those types of games.

“The thing I like best about Illinois is that it’s battle-tested.”

According to KenPom, the Illini feature the nation’s fourth-best adjusted offensive efficiency, at 124.0, and they’re among the top 20% in defensive efficiency.

Their 34.5% touch beyond the arc is above average, but Illinois hits 54.6% of shots inside the arc, a top-10% rate. In offensive rebounding, their 36.3% snatch rate is 18th in the game.

“They rebound the ball extremely well by committee,” Wyatt said. “They’re a decent three-point-shooting team, but they sometimes get ‘three-point-happy.’ I’d like to see them take closer to 20 three-pointers, instead of 24, and look to score more inside.”

SOLID DEFENSE REQUIRED

The two-point threats have been senior swingman Terrence Shannon Jr. (60.3%), senior power forward Quincy Guerrier (56.8%), senior guard Marcus Domask (53.6%) and sophomore small forward Ty Rodgers (52.9%).

Illinois is in the top third of the Big Ten in free-throw shooting, too. And its two-point defense (45.8%) is top-30 in college hoops; beyond the arc, they’re an above-average 32.4%.

“Offensively, there isn’t much to criticize,” Wyatt said. “And they have a go-to guy, in Shannon, when they need someone to make a play. But to make a deep run, they’re going to have to turn up the defense.”

Seventh-year coach Brad Underwood’s side yielded at least 80 points to five of its first six February foes.

And, perhaps oddly, in seven NCAA Tournament appearances, Underwood’s squads (at Stephen F. Austin, Oklahoma State and Illinois) have never advanced past the second round.

“To make a deep run, Underwood is going to have to get this team back on the same page defensively,” Wyatt said. “They don’t have to be elite because they’re built to outscore most teams. They just have to be solid.”