President Barack Obama could be the biggest factor in Gov. Pat Quinn defeating Republican gubernatorial nominee Bruce Rauner.
Based on a Rasmussen Reports poll last month that showed Quinn and Rauner were in a dead heat, the incumbent could use any and all help. And while Rauner may have a ridiculous pile of cash to spend, he doesn’t have what Quinn does — the trickle-down effect from the White House.
A study from Smart Politics at the Humphrey School of Public Affairs found that in the last 100 years, the party of the sitting president has won his home state’s gubernatorial race four out of five times.
In fact, just two gubernatorial nominees of the president’s party have lost in his home state over the last half-century plus. The most recent example took place in Arkansas in 1998 during Bill Clinton’s second term. Republican Mike Huckabee had ascended to the governorship in 1996 after the resignation of Democrat Jim Tucker.
The White House trickle-down effect hasn’t always existed and definitely has emerged over the last century.
Here’s the detailed breakdown:
How well is Obama liked in his home state? A recent Gallup poll has his approval rating in Illinois at 53.7 percent. It’s one of 11 states where his approval rating exceeds 50 percent.