Eye-popping stats confirm what we all know: Lucas Giolito is having a breakout season

Baseball by the numbers: Strikeouts are up, walks are down, and the Sox pitcher has a 3.1 WAR

SHARE Eye-popping stats confirm what we all know: Lucas Giolito is having a breakout season
White Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito

Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito delivers during the first inning of a baseball game against the Minnesota Twins Sunday, June 30, 2019, in Chicago.

Jeff Haynes/AP

It’s been a remarkable first half for White Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito, who at 11-3 with a 3.15 ERA is tied for the American League lead in wins.

As one of six Chicago representatives in Tuesday night’s All-Star Game, Giolito has taken much more than a giant step from his 10-13, 6.13 of 2018.

Giolito scuffled in three of his last four starts before the break as two losses to the Cubs, a no-decision vs. the Red Sox and a win over the Twins hiked his ERA from 2.22 to 3.15. nonetheless, he ranks seventh among AL pitchers with a 3.1 WAR at Fangraphs.com.

Behind the numbers are splits that point the way toward Giolito’s great leap forward.

**A year ago, Giolito was the most walk-prone pitcher in MLB, with 4.67 walks per nine innings. He’s improved dramatically to 3.16 BB/9. That’s something to watch after his last four games. In five shutout innings against the Twins, he walked no one. But in giving up 15 earned runs in 14 innings against the Cubs and Red Sox, he walked 14.

**Strikeouts have increased. Sixth in the AL with 120 Ks, Giolito is averaging 10.8 per nine innings.

**Giolito is getting more swings and misses than last year in his first full big-league season. In 2019, 14.6 percent of his pitches have been swinging strikes after only 8.3 percent last year, according to data at Fangraphs.com.

**A 60.9 percent first-pitch strike rate improves on 55.4 last year. Contact on pitches outside the zone has plummeted to 52.1 percent after 66.4 last year.

**Giolito has given up more flyballs, with 40.3 percent of batted balls vs. 37.3 percent last year. Despite that, he’s allowed only 0.81 home runs per nine innings after 1.4 in 2018. Regression to a higher home run rate would be normal.

**Part of the package has been Giolito dropping his sinker. Last year, when sinkers were 19.9 percent of his pitches, opponents swung and missed on only 5.5 percent of sinkers. This year, he’s relied more heavily on his four-seam fastball, 54.6 percent of pitches after 39.5.

What about the other All-Star Chicagoans?

CUBS SHORTSTOP JAVIER BAEZ: Offensively, Baez’s 123 wRC+ trails his 131 of 2018, but Fangraphs lists him at 9.5 defensive runs, more than his 3.6 for all of last season.

CUBS CATCHER WILLSON CONTRERAS: Three home runs shy of his career-high 21 in 2017, Contreras’ 141 wRC+ leads the Cubs and National League catchers.

CUBS THIRD BASEMAN KRIS BRYANT: Starting with games of June 13, Bryant has hit .378 with a 1.068 OPS to bring his totals to .297 and .955.

SOX CATCHER JAMES McCANN: Before this season, McCann’s career-high wRC+ was 95 for the Tigers in 2017, below the MLB average of 100. For the Sox, he’s at 133.

SOX FIRST BASEMAN JOSE ABREU: Last year, Abreu he dipped to 78 RBI, but with 66 at the break, he’s on pace for a fifth season of 100 or more in six years with the Sox..

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