Jay Cutler’s latest injury could put the Bears on a course that many Bears fans have been waiting for — a legitimate shot at losing out to get a top-3 draft pick.
The Bears finish their season with the Titans (5-6) and 49ers (1-9) at home; the Lions (6-4) on the road; the Packers (4-6) and Redskins (6-3-1) at home; and the Vikings (6-4) at home.
If you cede the No. 1 overall pick to the winless Browns (0-11), the Bears still have a good shot at the No. 2 pick at 2-14. The only teams in contention are the 49ers (1-9) and the Jaguars (2-8). If the Bears lose to the 49ers on Dec. 4 — they couldn’t beat them at home last year even with Cutler — the 49ers could finish no worse than 2-14. And the Bears currently own the draft-order tie-breaker — strength-of-schedule — over both teams. Bears opponents currently are 83-77-1 (.519) — worse than the 49ers (82-74-4, .525) and Jaguars (86-76, .531).
And the Browns being at No. 1 isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Both teams are looking for quarterbacks, but the Browns’ history of evaluating quarterbacks is so poor, the odds of them getting the right guy are not that great. Last year the Brown traded down from the No. 2 pick instead of drafting Carson Wentz. They took Johnny Manziel in 2014, Brandon Weeden in 2012 and Brady Quinn in 2007.
Of course the Bears won’t “tank” to get the No. 2 or No. 3 draft pick. But that’s the beauty of this scenario: with Cutler out they don’t have to. With the 31st-ranked scoring offense in the NFL (14.3 points per game), they can play a decent game against even the 49ers and lose.
2. The Bears haven’t had a top-5 draft pick since 2005, when they took Texas running back Cedric Benson fourth overall. They haven’t had a top-3 pick since 1972, when they drafted Southern Illinois offensive tackle Lionel Antoine third overall. They had the No. 2 pick in 1970 — after losing a coin-flip with the Steelers for the No. 1 pick (Terry Bradshaw) — but traded it to the Packers for three players (Elijah Pitts, Lee Roy Caffey and Bob Hyland) who lasted one year or less with the Bears.
2a. The last time the Bears had a legitimate shot at the No. 1 overall pick was in 1997, when they were 1-10 after 11 games but won three of their next four (against the 8-3 Buccaneers, the 6-7 Bills and and 4-10 Rams) and finished 4-12 and picked fifth overall. Had they finished 2-14, they would have had the No. 1 overall pick — and a chance to draft either Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf.
3. Jay Cutler’s 128.0 passer rating in the first half was the highest of any of the Giants’ 10 opponents this season, when he completed 11-of-14 passes for 126 yards and a 19-yard touchdown to tight end Zach Miller as the Bears took a 16-9 lead. That’s better than Dak Prescott (92.9), Drew Brees (79.4), Aaron Rodgers (54.8) and Carson Wentz (49.0).
But it was a different story in the second half. Cutler was 6-of-13 for 126 yards, no touchdowns and an interception that sealed the Bears fate with 1:11 to play. The Bears were shut out in the second half for the third time this season. (That’s not the most in the league — the Jets have been shut out in the second half four times already).
3a. If the Bears’ 22-16 loss to the Giants turns out to be Cutler’s last game with the Bears, it was a fitting finale for a Bears career that had promise dashed by disappointment from start to finish.
Cutler’s 128.0 passer rating in the first half was the highest of any of the Giants’ 10 opponents this season, when he completed 11-of-14 passes for 126 yards and a perfectly thrown 19-yard touchdown pass to tight end Zach Miller as the Bears took a 16-9 lead.
But it was a different story in the second half. Cutler was 6-of-13 for 126 yards, no touchdowns and an interception that sealed the Bears fate with 1:11 to play. His second-half passer rating was 48.9. And you couldn’t pin it all on Cutler. Not only was he without top targets Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White, but Miller missed most of the second half with a broken foot. He was playing behind a makeshift offensive line that lost Pro Bowl guard Josh Sitton in the third quarter. And he probably was injured on the final, fatal throw.
But that is part of the Cutler predicament — too many extenuating circumstances. Unfair as it might be, the Bears need a quarterback with better luck.
4. Matt Barkley, the presumed starter Sunday against the Titans if Cutler can’t play, struggled in his only appearance this season — 6-of-15 for 81 yards and two interceptions for an 18.3 rating in place of injured starter Brian Hoyer against the Packers on Oct. 20. But that was a worst-case scenario. Barkley had not played in an NFL game since 2014 and had thrown just one pass in a game since 2013.
Quarterbacks coach Dave Ragone is confident it will be different with a chance to prepare.
“The best thing about what Matt did against Green Bay was he didn’t blink. It wasn’t too big for him,” Ragone said. “He was calm. You could feel it in his movements in the pocket. His eyes were up. There were a lot of [positive] things that a stat line would not produce. But the coaching staff, no confidence was wavered when he was in there. He did things he can build on for the next time.”
5. Even after allowing an 11-play, 78-yard touchdown drive in the first quarter, the Bears’ defense is fourth in the NFL in yards allowed per play in the first half (5.0). Their seven touchdowns allowed in the first half is tied for the NFL lead with the Seahawks and Steelers.
6. The Bears rushed for 88 yards on 17 carries in the first half — only the Packers (17-117) have gained more against the Giants in the first half this season. But they were stymied in the second half — just five yards on seven carries by running backs.
Why only seven carries when the Bears were either leading, tied or trailing by six points or fewer the entire second half?
“There is an opponent out there,” Fox said. “There are things that dictate whether you run or pass. I think when people load the box and it’s an eight- or nine-man front, it’s not real conducive [to running the ball].”
6a. So if the Giants were loading up the box to stop the run, why couldn’t Cutler take advantage of that?
“There’s a lot that goes into the passing game other than the quarterback. I think protection is part of it. The ability to get open. We knew going in the secondary was one of [the Giants’] strong points … without a couple of wide-outs that are not with us [Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White], that that was going to be a little bit of a tough match-up and it proved to be true.”
7. Extra credit: Kudos to cornerback Tracy Porter and left tackle Charles Leno for taking one for the team and doing the player interviews Monday — when the difficult subject of Jerrell Freeman’s suspension was sure to be the topic. Porter in particular addressed the issue on several levels with the professionalism befitting a team leader. Even when the Bears are 2-8, that stuff matters.
8. Mitch Trubisky Watch: The North Carolina junior was more efficient than prolific in a 41-7 rout of previously unbeaten The Citadel — 11-of-20 for 184 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. He also rushed three times for 55 yards.
In his first season as a starter, Trubisky has completed 258-of-370 passes (69.7 percent) for 3,188 yards (8.6 yards per attempt) 25 touchdowns and four interceptions. His 162.2 passer rating is ninth among NCAA Division I quarterbacks.
The Tar Heels (8-3) host North Carolina State (5-6) on Friday at Chapel Hill.
9. Ex-Bears Player of the Week: Buccaneers safety Chris Conte, who burned the Bears with a 20-yard interception return for a touchdown last week, took it from the end zone this time. With the Buccaneers protecting a 12-10 lead early in the fourth quarter and the Chiefs at the Bucs 6-yard line, Conte intercepted Alex Smith in the end zone and returned it 53 yards to the Buccaneers 48.
The Buccaneers parlayed that turnover into a touchdown that gave them a 19-10 lead and was the difference in a 19-17 victory. It snapped the Chiefs’ 10-game home winning streak. In fact, the Chiefs had not lost at Arrowhead since the Bears beat them 18-17 in Week 5 last season.
9a. Bills safety Corey Graham had six tackles and a pass break-up and was the Bills’ highest-rated defender by Pro Football Focus in a 16-12 victory over the Bengals.
9b. Shea McClellin, part of a committee of backup linebackers filling the void left by the trade of Pro Bowler Jamie Collins to the Browns, started against the 49ers and had four tackles in a 30-17 victory. The trade of Collins figures to give McClellin his best shot yet with the Patriots. He also blocked an extra-point against the Seahawks last week.
10: Bear-ometer: 3-13 — vs. Titans (L); vs. 49ers (L); at Lions (L); vs. Packers (W); vs. Redskins (L); at Vikings (L).
