1st-and-10: Trubisky over Foles? Yeah, but let’s not get carried away

Was benching Mitch Trubisky a mistake?

It sure looks that way, as the Bears’ offense has surged since Trubisky regained the starting quarterback job from Nick Foles against the Packers after the bye. The Bears have averaged 31.3 points in three games — fourth-best in the NFL in that span. And Trubisky has posted passer ratings of 108.3 against the Lions and 126.7 against the Texans, with four touchdown passes and no interceptions.

And the Bears’ beleaguered running game has been rejuvenated with Trubisky at quarterback. In his last three starts, the Bears have averaged 143.7 rushing yards and 6.2 yards per carry — with rushes of 80 and 57 yards. In seven games with Foles as the starter, the Bears averaged 52.6 rushing yards and 2.8 yards per carry. What was Matt Nagy thinking?

But looks can be deceiving. Trubisky’s surge has coincided with the Bears facing bottom-10 defenses. The Lions are 29th in total defense and 29th in rushing defense. The Texans are 31st in total defense and 31st in rushing defense. In Foles’ seven starts, the Bears faced four teams with defenses ranked in the top 10 in the league in total defense and rushing defense — the Colts (sixth/fifth), Buccaneers (seventh/first), Rams (first/third) and Saints (second/second).

And the Bears’ offensive line, fragile to begin with, crumbled with Foles starting. When it was at full strength, the Bears faced two of the best defenses in the NFL — the Colts’ and the Bucs’. By the time Foles faced more manageable defenses, the line deteriorated, losing left guard James Daniels for the season, right tackle Bobby Massie indefinitely and Cody Whitehair against the Saints and Titans.

Against the Titans’ middle-of-the-road defense (15th), the Bears started an offensive line of Charles Leno, Arlington Hambright, Alex Bars, Germain Ifedi and Rashaad Coward. Hambright was playing his first NFL game. Bars had never played center at any level. Coward had never started at tackle in the NFL.

When Trubisky returned, the Bears finally benched Coward and found an offensive-line combination that could hold its own — at least against subpar defenses — with Leno, Whitehair, Sam Mustipher, Bars and Ifedi.

Trubisky’s mobility enhances their effectiveness, no doubt. And he’s the best quarterback for the offense the Bears are running at this point of the season. He made more “good quarterback” plays against the Texans. And he probably would have fared better than Foles once the offensive line deteriorated.

But the notion that Nagy never should have benched Trubisky, while debatable, is closer to folly than the truth. Trubisky earned that demotion through two-plus seasons of inconsistency and a disturbing inability to read defenses in his fourth NFL season.

Nagy made the right move. But like so many other moves he has made since 2018, it just didn’t work out.

2. The Vikings game Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium will provide a degree of comparison for the Trubisky-Foles debate — and the bar for Trubisky is low.

Foles played his worst game of the season in a 19-13 loss to the Vikings on Nov. 16 at Soldier Field, completing 15 of 26 passes for 106 yards with no touchdown passes and an interception for a 51.1 passer rating. Then again, the Bears still were sorting out their offensive-line issues, and David Montgomery was out with a concussion, so the Bears’ poor run game (17 carries, 41 yards) didn’t help matters.

3. After throwing three touchdown passes against the Texans, Trubisky still has to overcome the stigma that he only picks on bad defenses.

Trubisky’s 10 best career passer ratings have come against defenses ranked 32nd, 30th, 27th, 32nd, 18th, 28th, 27th, 24th, 30th and 20th in opponents passer rating. Of his 16 games with 100-plus ratings, only two have come against teams ranked in the upper half of the NFL in passer-rating defense — the 13th-ranked Bengals (112.4) in 2017 under Dowell Loggains and the 14th-ranked Jets (102.7) in 2018.

Trubisky’s 20 career games with passer ratings above the league average, in fact, have come against teams with a combined 112-196-3 record. Only one came against a playoff team — the 2017 Panthers, when Trubisky completed 4 of 7 passes for 103 yards and a 101.8 rating in a 17-3 victory, with safety Eddie Jackson scoring both Bears touchdowns.

4. Trubisky’s best game relative to the opponent? Probably his three-touchdown game against the Cowboys last season in a 31-24 victory at Soldier Field.

The Cowboys came in ranked eighth in total defense, eighth against the pass and eighth in points allowed. Trubisky overcame an early interception to complete 23 of 31 passes for 244 yards, three touchdowns and a 115.5 passer rating. He also had 63 yards on 10 carries, including a 23-yard touchdown.

5. Two factors that Nagy pointed to as keys to Trubisky’s success against the Texans seem dubious: He avoided third-down situations, and he didn’t force anything deep.

That’s great when you can win doing that, but converting third downs and throwing deep balls accurately are two things Trubisky will have to do to succeed in the NFL.

The best quarterbacks, in fact, seem to thrive on demoralizing defenses with a knack for third-down conversions. On third-and-four or less, Russell Wilson (129.4 passer rating), Jared Goff (124.7), Aaron Rodgers (122.6), Tom Brady (119.1), Kyler Murray (116.4) and Patrick Mahomes (116.2) are excellent. Trubisky’s 60.1 rating is 36th among quarterbacks with 10 or more passes in those third-down situations.

6. The Bears have too much invested in outside linebacker Robert Quinn to give up on him — he has a $23.9 million dead-cap number for 2021, according to spotrac.com. But rookie Trevis Gipson might be in for more defensive snaps after Quinn was shut out on the stat sheet for a second consecutive game.

Gipson played 20 snaps against the Texans — up from 10 against the Lions the previous week. Quinn, who still only has that lone sack on his first snap this season, played 39 snaps against the Texans — down from 54 against the Lions.

7. Though the Bears’ defense stymied Deshaun Watson — who was missing his three top receivers — he still had a 101.9 passer rating. That’s the seventh consecutive game in which the Bears have allowed a passer rating of 100-plus (16 touchdown passes, two interceptions) — after not allowing a 100-plus rating in their first six games (four touchdown passes, five interceptions).

That’s the longest streak in the NFL since the Buccaneers allowed eight straight 100-plus passer ratings in 2018 — an average of 125.3 (21 touchdown passes, one interception) that included Trubisky’s career-best 154.6 in the second game of the streak.

8. After catching nine passes for 123 yards and a touchdown against the Texans, wide receiver Allen Robinson has 1,027 receiving yards this season — 24.7% of the Bears’ 4,158 total yards. That’s the highest percentage among receivers in the NFL.

That’s nothing new for Robinson. Last year, his 1,147 yards were 24.2% of the Bears’ total yards. In 2015 with the Jaguars, Robinson’s 1,400 receiving yards accounted for 25.1% of Jacksonville’s total offensive yards.

Robinson has reached the 1,000-yard mark with Blake Bortles in 2015 (88.2 rating, 23rd in the NFL), Trubisky in 2019 (83.0, 28th) and Trubisky (94.5, 21st) and Foles (81.0, 29th) in 2020.

9. Josh McCown Ex-Bear of the Week: Eagles wide receiver Alshon Jeffery caught a 15-yard touchdown pass from Jalen Hurts to spark a 24-21 upset of the Saints. Jeffery, who did not play in the Eagles’ first eight games while he recovered from offseason foot surgery, has three receptions for 30 yards and a touchdown in five games.

He is the second consecutive Phil Emery draft pick to win the award, following Washington linebacker Jon Bostic.

10. Bear-ometer: 7-9 — at Vikings (L); at Jaguars (W); vs. Packers (L).