Draft analysis: Bears must select a QB to try to escape purgatory

Part 1 of a 10-part series previewing the NFL Draft and analyzing the Bears’ needs.

The Bears’ starting quarterback in 2021 might not be on their roster.

The Bears won’t commit to picking up Mitch Trubisky’s fifth-year option for 2021. Even if they do, they can cut him next offseason with no financial penalty.

Nick Foles, for whom they traded a fourth-round draft pick last month, could opt out of his three-year contract after this season — or next — as part of his restructured deal. Even if he doesn’t, Foles is 31 and has started more than half his team’s regular-season games only twice in eight seasons.

So the Bears absolutely must consider selecting a quarterback with one of their top two picks — No. 43 or No. 50 overall — in the draft this month.

Doing so seems counterintuitive after an offseason in which general manager Ryan Pace went into full win-now mode, retaining Danny Trevathan and adding Robert Quinn, Jimmy Graham and Foles, all of whom will be 30 by the time the season begins. A rookie quarterback won’t help them in 2020, but a safety, cornerback, offensive lineman or wide receiver would.

The Bears are in quarterback purgatory, however. They traded four draft picks to move up one spot to take Trubisky second overall in 2017, then gave Foles $21 million guaranteed. On Friday, Pace and coach Matt Nagy said the two would compete for the starting job.

Pace simply must take a swing in the draft to fix the most important position in sports. The question for him is, is there a quarterback worth taking in the middle of Round 2?

LSU’s Joe Burrow, Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, Oregon’s Justin Herbert and Utah State’s Jordan Love will be off the board — likely in that order. The three best quarterbacks who might be available when the Bears pick are Georgia’s Jake Fromm, Washington’s Jacob Eason and Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts.

Fromm has the physical build of an IT guy but is athletic enough to have played in the Little League World Series as a boy. He can read defenses as well as any quarterback in the draft, but his arm strength is suspect.

Eason, who transferred from Georgia when Fromm seized the starting job, is the opposite. He has a huge arm to match his 6-6 frame, but he didn’t have nearly the same college success.

And Hurts, the Heisman Trophy runner-up last year, has the athleticism the Bears crave at the position but not the accuracy.

History, however, says the Bears won’t find their quarterback. The Broncos traded up to take Missouri quarterback Drew Lock 42nd overall last year. He won four of his five starts, leading GM John Elway to declare him the Broncos’ quarterback of the future.

Lock was the first quarterback drafted between the 40th and 50th picks since 2010 — and only the 20th since the NFL-AFL merger. They combined to post one Pro Bowl season (Jake Plummer in 1997).

Finding a starting quarterback at No. 43 or No. 50 is a long shot. But the Bears not taking a quarterback at all would be worse.

DRAFT SPOTLIGHT

Quarterbacks

Grading the Bears’ need: High. The Bears plan to have an open competition between Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles when training camp opens. But as the old saying goes, having two starting quarterbacks means you have none at all.

On the roster: Mitch Trubisky, Nick Foles, Tyler Bray.

The five best draft prospects: LSU’s Joe Burrow, Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, Oregon’s Justin Herbert, Utah State’s Jordan Love, Georgia’s Jake Fromm.

Keep an eye on: Fromm. His arm doesn’t measure up to that of Washington’s Jacob Eason and his legs don’t measure up to those of Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts. But he has a tremendous feel for the game and hails from a place where the Bears do a lot of their draft shopping. General manager Ryan Pace has drafted four Georgia players — first-round picks Leonard Floyd and Roquan Smith and receivers Javon Wims and Riley Ridley — since 2016. A recommendation by the Bulldogs’ staff would carry weight inside Halas Hall.

Close to home: Could a kid from Green Bay, Wisconsin, ever quarterback the Bears? Florida International’s James Morgan attended Ashwaubenon High School, a 1.2-mile walk from Lambeau Field. He started his college career at Bowling Green before transferring after two seasons. He set a Florida International record with 26 touchdown passes as a junior but struggled as a senior, partly because of a knee injury. He figures to be a third-day pick or an undrafted free agent.