Kyler Murray is a No. 1 overall pick the Cardinals got right.
He was the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. He was a two-time Pro Bowl quarterback by Year 3. He took the Cardinals to their first playoff game in six seasons in 2021, when he was the leading candidate for NFL MVP through the first half of the season. He signed a five-year, $230.5 million contract in 2022, making him the second-highest-paid quarterback in the league.
And when he comes to Chicago to face the 5-9 Bears on Sunday at Soldier Field, the Cardinals will be 4œ-point underdogs because — even after finding the right guy — they are 3-11 this season and have lost 22 of their last 27 games. In fact, their 7-24 record since the beginning of last season is worse than the Bears’ record in two seasons under coach Matt Eberflus (8-23) that has disgruntled fans clamoring for change.
Therein lies a cautionary tale for Bears fans looking to the possible No. 1 overall pick as the team’s long-awaited quarterback salvation. A lot of other factors have to be in place to become a consistent playoff participant, let alone win the Super Bowl.
Even if you pick the right guy, he has to have staying power. Murray hasn’t been the same dynamic quarterback since returning from a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee. He has a new offensive coordinator, with former Vikings and Browns assistant Drew Petzing under head coach Jonathan Gannon. And he no longer has DeAndre Hopkins as his security blanket. In a ranking of top quarterbacks by NFL.com before last week, Murray was 20th.
A rookie quarterback such as Caleb Williams or Drake Maye would join a Bears team with the arrow pointing up in 2024. The Bears’ defense is developing a young core of playmakers. The Bears have the makings of a quality offensive line. And they have established weapons in receiver DJ Moore and tight end Cole Kmet.
But you still have to get the right guy, and the record shows that with a quarterback in the top three picks in the draft, more can go wrong than can go right. Arguably, only the Bengals’ Joe Burrow — the No. 1 overall pick in 2020 — has met expectations among the 15 quarterbacks drafted in the top three in the last 10 years.
The others are mostly unproven, still developing, failed or elsewhere. The No. 1 picks: Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, Murray, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff and Jameis Winston. The No. 2 picks: C.J. Stroud, Zach Wilson, Mitch Trubisky, Carson Wentz and Marcus Mariota. The No. 3 picks: Trey Lance, Sam Darnold and Blake Bortles.
So while hope is heartening, history is daunting. In 2021, the Bears looked as though they had found their Kyler Murray. If they’re drafting a quarterback this time around, they’ll need to do better than that.
2. It’s a sign of modern times that Justin Fields has achieved cultlike status — and that’s a bad thing. The polarity of the Fields debate has spawned an oddly extreme band of loyalists that, like any cult, excuses his flaws and failures, always paints him as the victim and blames the media when confronted with negative evidence. It’s kind of bizarre, actually, in an NFL context.
The current answer to the Fields-or-Luke Getsy conundrum is obvious: It’s both. Fields might succeed in a better offense, but he still needs a lot of things to be right.
The good news: Fields will be a starter in the NFL in 2024, perhaps with the Bears under a new coordinator or perhaps with another team. Either way, he likely will get his chance to prove the problem was the offense and not the quarterback. Until then, the extremes on both sides of this often-mindless debate are better ignored. It’s suffocating.
3. Browns quarterback Joe Flacco, 38, completed 11 of 13 passes for 212 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Bears for a 144.4 passer rating. That’s the most passing yards in the fourth quarter in the NFL this season.
The Browns, by the way, were the only team in the NFL with a lower fourth-quarter passer rating (62.0) than the Bears (49.0) this season entering that game.
4. Red-flag department: The Bears’ Montez Sweat-fueled improvement on defense is being undercut by fourth-quarter collapses that suggest their defense has as much of an issue finishing as their offense.
Usually when good defenses lose the mental-toughness battle of wills in the fourth quarter, it’s a quarterback such as Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers doing the damage. The Bears’ last two collapses have come against Goff and Flacco — both accomplished quarterbacks, but not Brady or Rodgers.
It might be that while the Bears have the right pieces for an elite defense, something is still missing.
5. After holding the Browns to 29 yards on 18 carries, the Bears are leading the NFL in rushing defense (79.8 yards per game).
General manager Ryan Poles gets the credit. With defensive tackle Andrew Billings the key addition, the Bears have improved from 31st to first in rushing defense — obviously the biggest jump in the NFL.
Last season, the Steelers had the most improved rushing defense in the league, going from 32nd to ninth with (in part) the addition of defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi, who was Poles’ first choice to play the 3-technique position in Eberflus’ defense.
6. Eberflus dropping 6-3, 309-pound tackle Justin Jones into coverage on third-and-15 was reminiscent of Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers dropping 6-2, 337-pound nose tackle B.J. Raji into coverage in a key moment in the NFC Championship Game in January 2011.
It worked for the Packers against Bears backup Caleb Hanie, who had yet to start in the NFL. Hanie tried to beat cornerback Sam Shields’ blitz with a quick throw, but he didn’t see Raji, who intercepted the pass and returned it 18 yards for a touchdown.
The Bears weren’t as successful against Flacco, who was making his 198th career start. Flacco found tight end David Njoku behind Jones for a 34-yard gain that set up Dustin Hopkins’ winning field goal.
7. Quick hits: The Bears have converted 29 of 45 plays (64.4%) with one yard to go, 23rd in the NFL. . . . The Bears’ defense has allowed 20 of 35 conversions (57.1%) with one yard to go, third-best in the NFL. . . . The Browns had two receivers with 100 or more yards (Amari Cooper with 109, Njoku with 104) for the first time since 2013.
8. Bobby Slowik watch: The Texans’ offensive coordinator found a way to win without rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud on Sunday. With Stroud out with a concussion, Case Keenum rallied the Texans to a 19-16 overtime victory against the Titans.
After a slow start, Keenum was at his best in the fourth quarter and overtime, going 8-for-13 for 109 yards and a touchdown pass for a 113.9 passer rating.
With Stroud and Keenum, the Texans are sixth in the NFL in passer rating (97.4) and second in fourth-quarter passer rating (101.4).
9. Ex-Bears Player of the Week: Kicker Eddy Pineiro made all three of his field-goal attempts, including a 23-yarder as time expired, to give the Panthers a 9-7 victory against the Falcons. Pineiro has scored 18 of the Panthers’ 24 points in their two victories this season.
10. Bear-ometer: 7-10 — vs. Cardinals (W); vs. Falcons (W); at Packers (L).
