In the hypercompetitive, ultra-unpredictable world of the NFL, teams can get whiplash from how quickly and sharply their trajectories change.
That reality was on Lions coach Dan Campbell’s mind Sunday after his team coughed up a 17-point lead against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game and lost 34-31. He and general manager Brad Holmes worked three years to reach that point after inheriting a five-win team, and there’s no guarantee the Lions will get back there.
“This may have been our only shot,” Campbell said. “Do I think that? No. Do I believe that? No. However, I know how hard it is to get here. I’m well aware. It’s going to be twice as hard to get back to this point next year than it was this year.
“It’s going to be tough. Our division’s going to be loaded back up. . . . Everybody’s going to want a piece of you. You want to make the most of every opportunity, and we had an opportunity. We just couldn’t close it out, and it stings.”
Campbell knows the fragility of NFL success, having played in only one Super Bowl during his 11-year career as a tight end. And while he’s right that things could turn quickly for the Lions, they still have a lot going for them as they try to maintain their contender status.
That’s one of several challenges for the Bears as they work on their rebuild: Not only do they have to make good decisions and progress, especially at quarterback, but they have to do it better than everyone else. They were fourth in the NFC North this season, and they’re staring up at a championship-caliber team in the Lions that just had the second-best record in the league at 12-5.
And that’s not all.
The NFC Championship Game was nearly Packers-Lions. The Packers went only 9-8 but beat the Bears twice by a total of 26 points, blew out the Cowboys in the playoffs and were a missed field goal away from going to overtime against the 49ers the next week. They also have the best quarterback, Jordan Love, and best coach, Matt LaFleur, in the division.
Also, the Vikings are no joke. They haven’t finished last in the division or had fewer than seven wins in more than a decade and likely would’ve been a playoff team if quarterback Kirk Cousins had stayed healthy.
That’s what looms for the Bears merely in the division, let alone the greater NFL universe that includes the upcoming Super Bowl entrants in the Chiefs and 49ers, plus heavyweight contenders such as the Ravens, Cowboys, Bills and Eagles.
The Lions proved this season that they were well-equipped to venture beyond the North. That was apparent from the jump when they went on the road and toppled the defending champion Chiefs in the NFL kickoff game.
They did that with one of the NFL’s youngest rosters and have plenty of resources to keep upgrading. They have only four starters headed toward free agency and the sixth-most salary-cap space in the league at $58.6 million — about $12 million more than the Bears.
The Lions also have four draft picks in the first three rounds, beginning with No. 29 overall. The Bears’ capital trumps that with the top pick, but that’s still enough for the Lions to pick up quality pieces.
When BetOnline released its odds Monday for teams to win the Super Bowl next season, it had the Lions third at 7-to-1. The Packers were tied for sixth at 16-to-1, the Bears were 40-to-1 and the Vikings were 50-to-1. So while Campbell was wise to recognize that the Lions aren’t assured of getting back to this stage, smart money says they will.
And they’re a long-term problem for the Bears. They don’t look like a fluke.
It’s up to Campbell to ensure they sustain it. He has been one of the most aggressive coaches in the NFL, but he needed a little more finesse Sunday as two of his fourth-down calls were central to the Lions’ unraveling. His defense has flaws, including a bad habit of missing tackles. He also must prove he’s a savvy manager with the possibility that he’ll need to replace his offensive and defensive coordinators this offseason.
Nonetheless, Detroit’s rebuild has been a success. The team jumped from three wins to nine to 12. That’s a faster pace than the Bears have been on, and it’ll take a lot to make up that ground.
