No collusion? No rushin' to sign free agents this winter, either

Yu Darvish, right, makes his Cubs debut Tuesday while the former Cy Young winner he replaced, Jake Arrieta, remains a free agent.

Maybe the Cubs haven’t announced their next big winter signing because they’re waiting for the Cubs Convention opening ceremonies Friday night at the downtown Sheraton.

That’s gotta be it, right?

Cubs counting on Jim Hickey to pack a punch with pitching staff in transition

Close your eyes and you can almost smell the anticipation and excitement.

Except that isn’t anticipation and excitement.

It’s nearly the entire top of a free agent class rotting on the vine at the midpoint between the Winter Meetings and the start of most spring training camps.

Whether it’s the new normal, it’s a new experience for teams such as the Cubs and for agents representing dozens of anxious players – who occasionally can even be heard whispering the word “collusion” in private conversations.

Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer addressed a downtown civic club Thursday on about the same date as has done for years, then quickly discovered how much different this talk would go.

“Usually I give an offseason recap,” he said, “but this time it feels like it’s not even close to the ending.”

Wait until he gets upstairs to that Sheraton ballroom for Saturday’s 9 a.m. front office session and fans start peppering him and team president Theo Epstein about where their new frontline starter is – and whether he’s going to come in the form of Yu Darvish, Alex Cobb or even a returning Jake Arrieta.

And what about adding to the bullpen? Is Brandon Morrow really going to replace Wade Davis as the closer? What about Greg Holland? And what about a leadoff hitter? Maybe Lorenzo Cain?

More than two months into the offseason, first baseman Carlos Santana’s three-year, $60 million deal with the Phillies remains the biggest free agent deal of the winter. Davis’ three-year, $52 million deal with the Rockies is the biggest for a pitcher, and Tyler Chatwood’s three-year, $38 million deal early last month with the Cubs is the biggest for a starting pitcher.

And the Arrieta-Darvish-Cobb-Lance Lynn logjam atop the starting market doesn’t seem ready to dislodge in the next few hours or even days – with six to eight teams hovering and so far falling well short of the five- and six-plus-year offers we’ve seen top pitchers command in recent years.

Collusion? There may be a twinge of the same feeling in this market as in 1987, when teams actually did secretly agree to limit dollars and years to free agents.

And there has been a conspicuous silence from most executives publicly when it comes to talking about free agents – even to express general interest – compared to past years. Whether that is in part a result of a message delivered by commissioner Rob Manfred when he met with GMs and baseball presidents during the GM meetings in November, nobody seems willing to say much at all publicly about the market forces at play this winter.

Privately, insiders on both sides of the issue point to several factors in play, including some that would seem obvious:

The new collective bargaining agreement contains low, owner-friendly luxury tax payroll thresholds (relative to industry revenues and across-the-board spending ability), with increasing penalties for successive years exceeding them. Even the Yankees and Dodgers now are committed to lowering their behemoth payrolls below the thresholds, along with the Giants. That takes almost half the traditional big spenders out of the megadeal business this year.
The Cubs also are among those teams – and among the many looking ahead at a class next year that includes Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and, possibly, Clayton Kershaw.
Unlike the front office landscape of even 15 years ago, every team now has a bona fide, capable analytics department devoted to comparing cost to risk while projecting competitive windows and future markets.
Agent Scott Boras has a disproportionate number of top clients this winter and historically is not afraid to take his clients well into January, and even February, to get the deals he seeks.

“There was definitely a sense it could be a slower market,” Hoyer said. “But that said we were very focused. We were aggressive and went after Chatwood early in the offseason.”

As for another starter this weekend? Or a reliever?

There’s always the chance Kyle Hendricks or Justin Grimm gets something done and avoid arbitration.

LAST-MINUTE SHOPPING

The long list of valuable free agents still unsigned could form a starting rotation and lineup (including closer) with 24 combined All-Star selections (in parentheses):

Pitchers