When it comes to star players, you don’t know when to start worrying.
Outside linebacker Khalil Mack, 29, is starting his seventh season in the NFL, and three things are possible: He could be getting better, sitting at a plateau or riding his way down.
You hope it’s not the third because the Bears need him to be the stud he once was.
You hope it’s not the middle, either — the plateau — because last season wasn’t great by Mack’s standards.
His 81⁄2 sacks in 2019 were the lowest of his career, other than in his rookie season with the Raiders in 2014, when he still was learning.
His 47 combined tackles last season, according to Pro Football Reference, tied for the lowest of his career. But even that isn’t as simple as it looks because the 47 he had in 2018 came when he started three fewer games.
Time to worry?
Let’s not forget that even a fading Mack is likely to be a very good player. But if there’s anybody who should be praying for a resurgence to his house-wrecking style — besides Mack himself, of course — it’s Bears general manager Ryan Pace. He’s the man with the Mitch Trubisky albatross hanging around his neck, and Mack is his salvation.
Pace signed Mack to a six-year, $141 million contract in 2018. The deal made Mack the first defensive player — indeed, any player other than a quarterback — to make more than $20 million a year.
When he came in, he was worth every penny. His debut in 2018 on ‘‘Sunday Night Football’’ against the Packers was a gem. In the second quarter, he sacked quarterback DeShone Kizer, stripped the ball and recovered it. Minutes later, he intercepted a pass by Kizer and returned the ball 27 yards for a touchdown. That made him the first player in 36 years to have a sack, forced fumble, fumble recovery, interception and touchdown in one half.
He continued the tear, getting sacks and forced fumbles in four consecutive games.
When the 6-3, 270-pound Mack is at full tilt, he is faster, stronger and more agile than anyone trying to block him.
But to be that good, any player has to be at full skill level. What we never know for sure is when that rare dedication and gift have eroded ever so slightly — whether from age, injury or mental distraction — so that the genius athlete has become merely quite good.
Texans defensive end and three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt was unstoppable in his first five seasons in the league. But from ages 27 to 30, he has averaged only eight games played per season. And his sack total in the last four seasons is 211⁄2, compared with 69 in the previous four seasons.
You can’t judge one player’s career arc by another’s — consider that Tom Brady threw for more than 4,000 yards last year at age 42 — but you can envision possibilities.
Mack has been nothing but a hard worker and an outstanding teammate since arriving in Chicago. So maybe there’s no need to be concerned.
He certainly is aware of the pressure to excel. As outside linebackers coach Ted Monachino put it: ‘‘It would be safe to say that every year Khalil Mack has something to prove. And I would say that the volume has been cranked to about nine or 10 in terms of that this year.’’
We’ll assume the volume knob goes to 10 and not 20. Still, time waits for no one. As Mack goes, so goes the Bears’ defense. And with a suspect quarterback position, the defense must lead the offense.
Two things are for sure: The Bears haven’t won a playoff game since Mack arrived and the Bears (and Pace) are on the hook for more than $26 million against the salary cap for the next three seasons because of Mack.
It would be really nice if Mack once again could be as tough as the guy who got 121⁄2 sacks and six forced fumbles in 2018.
Former Giants outside linebacker Lawrence Taylor, maybe the best player in history at the position, averaged 10.3 sacks per season from ages 29 to 31. Because we’re talking comparisons, how about him as the model?
Mack should see Taylor as the star he’s shooting for. Here’s hoping he hits it.
