Pick a lane, Justin Fields.
Bears general manager Ryan Poles needs to find out one thing about him — is he Mitch Trubisky or Josh Allen?
So far, he has been both.
In the Bears’ first three games, Fields looked like a quarterback who would be playing elsewhere in 2024 — 28th in the NFL with a 67.7 passer rating. At that rate, even the fifth-year option would be a no-brainer.
In his last two games, though, Fields has looked like a quarterback Poles could splurge on. In a loss to the Broncos and a victory against the Commanders, Fields passed for 617 yards and eight touchdowns and had one interception for a 131.2 passer rating — third-best in the NFL in that span behind the 49ers’ Brock Purdy (153.2) and the Bills’ Allen (131.5).
In that two-game flash of excellence, Fields became the first Bears quarterback to throw four touchdown passes in consecutive games since Jay Cutler in Weeks 16 and 17 of the 2009 season. Fields’ eight total touchdown passes were the most in back-to-back games since Trubisky threw nine against the Buccaneers (six) and Dolphins (three) in 2018.
Those benchmarks are notable because both ended up being red flags — Cutler was rarely if ever better in his eight seasons with the Bears, and Trubisky never was in his four seasons with the Bears.
If this isn’t just the beginning for Fields, it might be the end. With the Bears owning the winless Panthers’ first-round pick, plus their own, Poles could have opportunities in a draft in which the top two quarterback prospects (USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye) are considered far superior to the 2023 class that Poles passed on (Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, Florida’s Anthony Richardson).
If Poles doesn’t have those options, Fields might get away with Trubiskying his way through the season — teasing Poles with electric performances against weaker defenses but faltering against better defenses — and still see Year 4.
But regardless of Poles’ 2024 draft options, the bar should be raised for Fields. He needs to play well against good defenses. And he needs to not only win games, but be the guy who closes the door. The price of quarterbacks who land between Trubisky and Allen is way too high and way too cost-inefficient for Poles to get stuck in the middle.
2. As long as you’re trying to win, the NFL always gives you a chance. The Bears’ next three opponents rank 20th or lower in opponents’ passer rating — the Vikings (30th, 110.8), Raiders (92.9, 20th, with an uptick after intercepting Jordan Love three times Monday night) and the Chargers (25th, 98.5).
Even the Saints on Nov. 5 (first, 66.1) are a potential house of cards, having faced only one quarterback not ranked in the bottom five in the league in passer rating (Baker Mayfield, eighth). And then the Panthers (22nd, 93.3).
You can never underestimate the mediocrity of the NFL. The Bears’ last 12 opponents are a combined 25-33, with only the Lions (4-1), Saints (3-2) and Falcons (3-2) above .500.
3. The Bears were looking for a dominant wide receiver, but this might be taking it a step too far — DJ Moore had 230 of Fields’ 282 passing yards against the Commanders (81.6%). That’s the highest percentage for a 200-yard receiver in the NFL since 1999, when the Ravens’ Qadry Ismail had 258 of Tony Banks’ 268 passing yards (96.3%!) in a 31-24 victory over the Steelers.
Moore’s percentage is a particular oddity in an era of increasingly diversified NFL offenses. Over the last eight seasons, the average percentage of passing yards for a 200-yard receiver is 54.2%.
4. Did you know? Moore’s 138 yards after the catch against the Commanders would be the most receiving yards for a Bear since Anthony Miller had nine catches for 140 yards against the Lions in 2019 — and the fifth-most in the last 10 seasons.
5. It has to be frustrating for Poles to be criticized last year for not giving Fields enough weapons, then when he makes a move to rectify that — trading for Chase Claypool — it blows up on him, and he’s criticized for that, too.
But that’s on him. While Poles was generally applauded for acquiring Claypool, the biggest criticism — that he paid too high a price, especially giving up the Bears’ second-round pick instead of the Ravens’ second-round pick he received in the Roquan Smith deal — was spot-on.
At the time, Poles traded the 45th pick of the draft for an underperforming player originally drafted 49th by the Steelers. In effect, he bought a used luxury car that was giving the previous owner trouble and paid over the original sticker price — a price that went even higher over time.
That’s the definition of a reach that seems contrary to Poles’ style. And if that misjudgment of the risk influenced Poles’ decision to avoid drafting Jalen Carter, it might have compounded the error. Time will tell.
6. Red Flag Dept.: The Bears’ offensive surge against the Broncos and Commanders has included a seasonlong bugaboo — a downturn in production in the second half. The Bears outscored the Broncos/Commanders 48-7 in the first half but were outscored 41-20 in the second half.
For the season, the Bears are averaging 6.3 yards per play in the first half (fourth-best in the NFL) and 4.5 yards per play in the second half (24th in the NFL). They might need a senior offensive assistant even more than a senior defensive assistant.
7. Left guard Teven Jenkins played for the first time this season after missing seven weeks with a preseason calf injury — and even in 37 snaps was the Bears’ best offensive lineman against the Commanders.
The challenge for Jenkins is staying healthy. He has played in only 20 of 39 games, started 13 and played every snap in only six since he was drafted in the second round (39th overall) in 2021. He has never started more than five consecutive games.
To address that issue, Jenkins said he has changed his diet and has been seeing a “body work specialist.”
But his injury history isn’t a psychological hurdle he has to clear.
“Mentally right now, I’m all good,” Jenkins said.
8. Quick Hits: Using Fields under center on sneaks, the Bears were 3-for-3 on third-and-one and fourth-and-one against the Commanders. They were 7-for-11 coming into the game. . . . Fields’ 125.3 passer rating was the highest against the Commanders in the last two seasons (22 games). . . . Moore’s 230 receiving yards were the most against Washington since 1966, when Cowboys Hall of Famer Bob Hayes had nine catches for 246 yards and two touchdowns in a 31-30 victory. . . . The Bears have allowed all five opponents to convert 50% or more of their third downs. . . . The Bears’ best win of their 3-14 season in 2022 came after the mini-bye, a 33-14 road victory against the Patriots.
9. Ex-Bear of the Week: Lions running back David Montgomery had 29 carries for 109 yards and scored on a 42-yard run in a 42-24 victory over the Panthers.
Montgomery has more rushing touchdowns (six) in four games with the Lions than he did in 16 games with the Bears last season (five).
10. Bear-ometer: 6-11 — vs. Vikings (W); vs. Raiders (W); at Chargers (L); at Saints (L); vs. Panthers (W); at Lions (L); at Vikings (L); vs. Lions (L); at Browns (L); vs. Cardinals (W); vs. Falcons (W); at Packers (L).
