Like linebacker Roquan Smith before him, Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson is not quite as good as he thinks, but still better than the Bears think — and worth paying a premium to keep.
While general manager Ryan Poles has bigger decisions to make on quarterback Justin Fields and coach Matt Eberflus after the 2023 season, his decision on Johnson is becoming more and more interesting with each game.
Johnson already seems like one of the beneficiaries of the Montez Sweat “multiplier” effect. It’s probably not a coincidence that as Sweat has become acclimated to Eberflus’ defense, the Bears’ pass rush has improved — nine quarterback pressures against the Panthers, eight against the Lions and nine against the Vikings in the last three games. And Johnson’s impact has been that much more noticeable. He had two near-interceptions against the Lions and three pass breakups against the Vikings, including one interception and another near-pick-six.
Johnson is a technically proficient player whose impact doesn’t always show up on the eye test. He doesn’t shadow the opposing team’s best receiver, so it’s more difficult to measure his “shutdown” impact against receivers such as Mike Evans, Davante Adams or Justin Jefferson.
And quarterbacks often avoid him, so he doesn’t have as many opportunities as other corners. He allowed two receptions for four yards with an interception against the Vikings on Monday night, according to Pro Football Focus, which gave him a 92.9 coverage grade.
The three missed interceptions — all of which could’ve been pick-sixes — are on him. Johnson has to make those plays to be the All-Pro he wants to be this season. But those opportunities are an indication that as Eberflus’ defense continues to grow, Johnson’s impact will grow, as well.
He’s an impact player with room for growth — the kind of high-floor/high-ceiling player you can pay a premium for. That’s why the Bears signed linebacker Tremaine Edmunds to a four-year, $72 million contract in free agency — because he has room to grow. Johnson is certainly in that class.
The Bears seem like they need more tangible production to get there, though. On Tuesday, Eberflus curiously went out of his way to say that Johnson should’ve had a bigger return on his interception against the Vikings. As welcome as that candor is, it’s a rare pointed criticism of a productive player’s performance from a coach who usually defaults to the collective — “They’ve all got to be better’’ — to avoid picking on any single player.
It seems like a repeat of the Smith situation in which the Bears like the player but not as much as the player likes himself. The Bears still can apply the franchise tag to Johnson in the offseason. But they also might be thinking that the “Tez Effect” could make 2023 rookies Tyrique Stevenson and Terell Smith a more cap-efficient long-term solution to team with Kyler Gordon in the secondary.
It might cost Poles a little more than he wants to spend to keep Johnson. But as he found out with the extension for tight end Cole Kmet, there’s a bonus to signing a homegrown player.
“I had a player come up to me after practice . . . and said, ‘Hey, you sent a ton of energy through the locker room because you guys are taking care of the guys in there,’ ’’ Poles said in July after Kmet’s deal was announced.
With the Bears still trying to get their footing in his second season, Poles might want to keep that in mind. Sometimes, those big contracts are multipliers, too.
2. Johnson also figures to benefit if the Bears can force opponents to play from behind more often. His two interceptions against the Raiders on Oct. 22 at Soldier Field came with the Bears leading 24-6 (a pick-six) and 30-6.
It makes a difference. Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland has set an NFL record with five touchdowns on interception returns this season. All five have come with the Cowboys leading by a touchdown or more — against the Giants (9-0), Patriots (21-3), Rams (10-3), Panthers (24-10) and Commanders (38-10).
Bland’s other picks have come with the Cowboys leading 35-7 and 28-3.
3. After a notably conservative, horizontal, screen-heavy approach against the Vikings on Monday night, Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy will probably say he was taking what the Vikings’ blitz-heavy defense was giving them.
But other teams have taken more. The Bears’ 4.7 yards per play ranks seventh among the 11 opponents the Vikings have faced. And only the Packers (in a 24-10 loss in Week 8) have scored fewer points against the Vikings.
4. Fields had an 86.3 passer rating in the fourth quarter against the Vikings (with two fumbles). That’s the second-highest fourth-quarter rating in competitive games this season, behind the 121.5 rating against the Commanders.
Still, the Bears have an NFL-low 49.2 passer rating in the fourth quarter. Their 98.7 rating in the first three quarters ranks ninth in the NFL. The 49.5-point differential from the first three quarters to the fourth quarter is the largest in the NFL.
Even backup Tyson Bagent has a big disparity in his four starts — a 90.4 passer rating through three quarters; 20.2 in the fourth. His 70.2 drop is the biggest of any quarterback who has started a game.
5. The Bears’ defense has improved from 25th to ninth in yards allowed over the last six weeks after holding the Vikings to 242 yards Monday night. But it is still 20th in yards allowed per play and 23rd in defensive points allowed — both indicators of room for improvement.
“We’ve gotta own that,” Eberflus said. “It’s really third down and red zone; we’ve gotta do a better job.”
Indeed, the Bears are 31st in third-down-conversion defense (46.1%, 70 of 152) and 32nd in red-zone defense (73.5%, allowing 25 touchdowns on 34 possessions).
6. The Bears had seven penalties for 76 yards against the Vikings. For the season, the Bears have been penalized 95 times for 699 yards. Their opponents have been penalized 51 times for 395 yards. That minus-304-yard differential is by far the biggest in the NFL. The Seahawks are next at minus-185.
7. Quick Hits — The Bears have outscored their opponents 20-0 in the third quarter over the last three games after being outscored 62-25 in the first nine. . . . The Bears are only the second team this season not to score a touchdown against the Vikings’ defense — the Panthers are the other. . . . Yannick Ngakoue’s three sacks are a career low through 12 games. His previous low is six, with an average of 7.4. . . . The Bears have allowed only one 100-yard receiver this season (the Buccaneers’ Evans, with six catches for 171 yards in Week 2). That’s tied with the Cowboys for the fewest.
8. Jim Harbaugh Watch: With the former Bears quarterback serving the final game of his three-game suspension, his No. 3 Wolverines beat No. 2 Ohio State 30-24 at Michigan Stadium, their third consecutive victory over their Big Ten rival after losing eight in a row. Michigan is 37-3 (.925) under Harbaugh in the last three seasons.
9. Ex-Bear of the Week: Linebacker Nick Morrow had 12 tackles, including one tackle for loss, in the 10-1 Eagles’ 37-34 overtime victory against the Bills at Lincoln Financial Field. Morrow has three sacks and five quarterback pressures in seven starts.
10. Bear-ometer: 7-10 — vs. Lions (W); at Browns (L); vs. Cardinals (W); vs. Falcons (W); at Packers (L).
