LAS VEGAS — If the Westgate SuperBook’s release two weeks ago of point spreads for every NFL game portends how teams will fare, the Bears will be mediocre.
The rudimentary barometer, based on a team winning when it’s favored and losing as an underdog, has been sharp regarding Chicago. Remember, the NFL expanded to a 17-game schedule in 2021.
A year ago, the SuperBook pegged Chicago as a favorite seven times, and it finished 7-10. Two seasons ago, it was favored twice and won three games. In ’21, it was the favorite in four games and won six.
Some games are pick ’em, several might have 1- and 1.5-point spreads, tight tilts that could go either way. We, however, remove the gray areas and consider the figures gospel.
The SuperBook has Chicago favored nine times this season, high tide compared to recent campaigns. Still, SuperBook executive vice president Jay Kornegay can’t envision the Bears going 9-8.
So it’s no surprise, then, that Chicago’s victory total is 9 (-120 over, even under) on that shop’s projected regular-season win chart from mid-May.
“I just can’t see that happening,” Kornegay says. “There will be a lot of eyes on rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. It’ll be interesting to see how that pressure affects him. Plus, their playmakers are just average to below-average.
“Somehow, they find ways to underperform up there, and it’s more than just the quarterback; whole units need to perform better . . . the Bears will be a below-average team.”
Value action
Carolina and New England are never favored, and San Francisco is never an underdog. But their win projections don’t jell with the spreads that Ed Salmons, the SuperBook’s vice president of risk management, and his team produced.
The largest difference is the Niners, whose win total is 11.5. Should they go 17-0, that’s a 5.5-game difference. Over 11.5 is an alluring +130 (risk $100 to win $130), -150 for under.
Tennessee also has a 5.5 differential, since the SuperBook has it favored once and its projected win total is 6.5. Under for the Titans is -140.
Carolina and New England both have 5 as season wins, quite an under cushion for teams not favored once, both paying -110. Las Vegas also has a 5 differential, since it’s favored twice and is projected to win seven; under is even.
Minnesota, favored just twice, has a 6.5 projection; under is even.
Kornegay believes his Broncos are on the right path since the Walton-Penner Group bought the team in 2022. But he wanted general manager George Paton to draft tight end Brock Bowers instead of quarterback Bo Nix.
“They don’t have great wideouts,” Kornegay says of the Broncos, “so who will Nix throw to?”
Denver is favored twice, with a 5.5 projection. Under is +110.
Atlanta, Dallas, Kansas City and the New York Jets have 3.5 differentials, times they’re favored being greater than their projected victories. Over for the Falcons is -160, Cowboys even, Chiefs even and Jets -150.
So I’m wagering over on the Niners, Falcons, Cowboys, Chiefs and Jets, under on the Panthers, Pats, Titans, Raiders, Broncos and Vikings. I will occasionally update that action here.
Bettors have acted, with $1,000 maximums on sides, $500 on totals. In Week 2, Seattle -1 at Carolina has moved to Seahawks -2.5 at the SuperBook. In Week 3, Jets -7 at home to New England has eked to 7.5.
Atlanta has been sliced from +3 to +2.5 in Week 1 at home to Pittsburgh and from +4 to +3.5 in Week 4 against New Orleans.
Nemeses
Green Bay is favored in 11 games with a team regular-season win total of 10; over is even.
Kornegay knows the Packers’ season will be determined by quarterback Jordan Love, whose 4,159 passing yards ranked seventh last season.
“I think he surprised a lot of people last year. Will that continue? I’m not sold on that, but I was pretty impressed with his play in the second half last year. Incredible.”
Love led Green Bay to a playoff victory at Dallas.
Aaron Rodgers, another quarterback who has inflicted headaches upon the Bears, lasted four plays for the Jets last season before tearing an Achilles’ tendon.
“The [AFC East] is weaker,” Kornegay says. “The Jets might make some noise in the playoffs, depending on Rodgers’ health.
“If your No. 1 guy goes down, there are big drop-offs going to your second-stringer. There aren’t many situations where you have a slight dip in talent with your backup; usually, it’s a cliff.”
Awards for Bears?
Kornegay might not be bullish about the Bears, but two figure prominently on award charts.
Former USC quarterback Williams is the +200 favorite to win NFL rookie of the year, ahead of Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels and Cardinals receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., both +650. Minnesota quarterback J.J. McCarthy is 10-1.
Williams’ NFL MVP odds are far longer at 80-1.
“From the line of scrimmage to the defense creating short fields for him,” Kornegay says, “those are all part of that process.”
Coach Matt Eberflus somehow went from a 10-24 coach with a questionable future after last season to someone with a neophyte quarterback who is now a 10-to-1 favorite, with Jim Harbaugh of the Rams, for coach of the year.
“Well, you can win coach of the year and actually have a close-to-.500 record,” Kornegay says. “Harbaugh is ‘the name,’ and you can understand that.”
