KEY MATCHUP
Like quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce had his lowest production of the Mahomes era during the regular season. But also like Mahomes, he has stepped it up in the playoffs, with 23 receptions for 262 yards (11.4 per catch, 87.3 yards per game) and three touchdowns.
Kelce was a particular safety valve for Mahomes against the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game — 11 receptions on 11 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown. He converted fourth-and-two (13 yards) and third-and-one (six yards) plays on the first two touchdown drives that set the tone for the Chiefs’ 17-10 victory.
Kelce presents a difficult challenge even for good defenses because he’s a good route runner with excellent quickness — and Mahomes often is incredibly accurate throwing to him.
The 49ers defend the middle of the field well in general, but Lions tight end Sam LaPorta had nine receptions for 97 yards against them in the NFC Championship Game. And Kelce is a big step up from LaPorta. The 49ers’ safeties — veteran Tashaun Gipson and rookie Ji’Ayir Brown — and linebackers Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner — face a big challenge here.
TRENDING
The 49ers’ defense that ranked third in the NFL in the regular season (89.7 yards) has allowed 159 rushing yards per game in the playoffs — 136 yards against the Packers (4.9 average) and 182 yards (6.3 average) and three touchdowns against the Lions.
The Chiefs were 19th in the NFL in rushing in the regular season (104.9 yards), but have averaged 127.3 rushing yards in the playoffs — 147 against the Dolphins, 146 against the Bills and 89 against the Ravens. Running back Isiah Pacheco is averaging 84.7 yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry in the playoffs, with a rushing touchdown in all three games.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes had career lows in passer rating (92.6), passing yards per game (261.4) and yards per attempt (7.0) in the regular season and has the weakest supporting cast he’s had in six seasons as a starter.
But he’s been a difference-maker even without prolific numbers in the playoffs, with timely, mistake-free performances against the Dolphins (83.6), Bills (131.6) and Ravens (100.5).
It’s tough to get Mahomes out of his comfort zone, but that could be the 49ers best hope. Mahomes was not sacked against the Dolphins and Bills and was sacked twice against the Ravens, but not until the fourth quarter.
X-FACTOR
And Reid, Mahomes and the Chiefs are Super Bowl veterans. Niners coach Kyle Shanahan has been to two Super Bowls, but has a lot to prove in the Big Game after faltering in crunch time as offensive coordinator of the Falcons in Super Bowl LI and losing a 10-point fourth-quarter lead in Super Bowl LIV. And 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy will be playing in his first Super Bowl. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo surely has Purdy in his sights in this one.
