Alex Vlasic has made two or three years’ worth of progress this season — and at the perfect time.
The 22-year-old Wilmette native not only has established himself as an NHL regular but also has emerged as arguably the Blackhawks’ best defenseman, making consistently excellent plays in his defensive zone and moving the puck with far more prowess than expected.
He barely misses rookie eligibility, but if he did qualify, his average of 20:54 in ice time entering Friday would be second among rookies in the NHL, behind only Wild defenseman Brock Faber. Since Dec. 4, his average was 22:39 before Friday.
Vlasic stands to profit from this breakout, too. His entry-level contract expires after this season, making him a restricted free agent. He’ll have arbitration rights, which will further boost his negotiating power to command a huge raise.
When extension negotiations begin, he and the Hawks will first need to discuss a preferred length for a deal. General manager Kyle Davidson recently said he’d weigh the possibility of a long-term contract.
“You want to be sure, though, right?” Davidson said. “The salary cap is pretty unforgiving, so if you’re going to go long, long term, you want to make sure you’re giving the contract that’s going to work out and not hamstring you anywhere and hold you back. But he has had a great season and given us a lot of confidence in what he’s going to be moving forward.”
The Hawks were financially generous with recent extensions for forwards Nick Foligno and Jason Dickinson and still have abundant salary-cap space. They’ll be more stringent with Vlasic, considering his contract probably will stretch beyond 2026, when forward Connor Bedard and defenseman Kevin Korchinski will need extensions. What the Hawks give him this year also will establish the baseline salary for his third contract.
Comparable second contracts recently given to other young NHL defensemen might help in estimating Vlasic’s value.
Last summer, when Sabres defenseman Mattias Samuelsson’s entry-level deal expired, he was a promising, defensive defenseman with 109 games of NHL experience — a few more than the 97 that Vlasic will have if he plays every game the rest of this season. Samuelsson had signed a seven-year extension at just under $4.3 million per year the previous fall, giving him tons of security and stability in exchange for limited financial upside.
Former Penguins defenseman John Marino, now with the Devils, is a similar case from a few years back. He signed a six-year contract at $4.4 million per year that kicked in when his entry-level contract expired in 2021, although he was traded the following offseason.
If Vlasic and the Hawks opt for a shorter-term “bridge” contract, there are even more comparable situations. At the end of a bridge contract, Vlasic would be a restricted free agent rather than an unrestricted free agent, but he’d have leverage to command an even bigger salary on his third contract if he developed into a star.
Last summer, Rangers defenseman K’Andre Miller agreed to a two-year contract at $3.9 million per year. Then Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard — after playing hardball until late August — signed a nearly identical contract. The summer before, Sharks defenseman Mario Ferraro signed a four-year contract at $3.3 million per year and Islanders defenseman Noah Dobson had a three-year extension at $4 million per year kick in.
Then there’s the unusual case of Kings defenseman Mikey Anderson. He accepted a one-year, $1 million contract when his entry-level contract expired in 2022, then negotiated a massive eight-year extension at $4.1 million per year halfway through the season.
All considered, those examples suggest Vlasic’s cap hit likely will fall within the range of $3.5 million to $4.5 million.
