The Blackhawks are on track to land a top-five pick again, but the same bold-text caveat mentioned over and over during the lead-up to the 2023 draft ought to be brought up again.
The team that finishes last in the regular-season standings has only a 25.5% chance of ending up with the No. 1 overall pick.
The NHL’s relatively balanced draft-lottery odds ultimately benefitted the Hawks last season. They finished only third-to-last and entered the lottery with an 11.5% chance but still landed Connor Bedard.
If the season ended Tuesday, the Hawks would finish second-to-last, ahead of only the Sharks. They would enter the lottery with a 13.5% chance of picking No. 1, with a top-four pick guaranteed. They also could receive another first-round pick (top-10 protected) from the Lightning.
During the second half of the season, the Hawks could slip below the Sharks or surpass the Ducks, Senators or Blue Jackets, but it’s worth starting to think ahead to draft scenarios. General manager Kyle Davidson, amateur scouting director Mike Doneghey and the rest of the front office are doing so already.
So which draft-eligible prospects are being considered this year?
One sure thing is Macklin Celebrini, the longtime unanimous projection to go No. 1. Although his stardom and upside don’t quite compare to Bedard’s, he’s still an ultra-elite prospect — one who would form a formidable one-two punch alongside Bedard.
“We already got lucky, so I’m not going to get too ahead of myself in terms of thinking that high,” Davidson said in December. “But this is another strong draft this year, so you can’t help but get a little bit excited when looking at the options.”
Celebrini is a 17-year-old center from Vancouver (just like Bedard) who played in Chicago last season, racking up 86 points in 50 games for the USHL’s Chicago Steel. As a freshman at Boston University this season, his 25 points in 15 games are tied for the NCAA lead in points per game. He had eight points in five games for Canada at the world junior championships.
He doesn’t possess any otherworldly trait, but he’s top-of-the-charts great in virtually every category: skating, shooting, playmaking, creativity, hockey IQ, defensive play, sturdiness and more. At 6 feet, he’s a few inches taller than Bedard.
Beyond Celebrini, the Hawks suspect nobody else is as NHL-ready as the top three picks last summer (Bedard, Leo Carlsson and Adam Fantilli).
Conversely, the Hawks believe eight or nine players remain in the mix to potentially wind up as top-five picks, depending on their play down the stretch and the needs of the teams that nab those picks.
Cole Eiserman, a center at the U.S. National Team Development Program, has generated the most buzz as a possible No. 2 selection. He’s a fantastic shooter and finisher — nearly rivaling Bedard in that regard — but he has struggled at times with inconsistency and puck-hogging.
Other forwards in the mix include Ivan Demidov, a Russian winger with great hands and playmaking ability but average skating, and Konsta Helenius, a Finnish center with a strong work ethic and offensive tools who has somewhat flown under the radar.
Cayden Lindstrom and Berkly Catton, two Canadian centers, also are worth a mention. Lindstrom offers 6-3, 210-pound size and terrific skating; he has surged up rankings recently. Catton uses his slight 170-pound frame to play an agile, elusive offensive style.
In terms of defensemen, the Hawks would probably prefer a right-handed shot considering how heavily their existing prospect pool leans left-handed.
Artyom Levshunov appears likely to be the first right-handed defenseman drafted. He has 19 points in 20 games as a freshman at Michigan State and could become Belarus’ first top-five selection.
He’s 6-2 and 208 pounds and is strong in all three zones.
