Parties spend millions on House races, but GOP magic number is 1

The goal all along for Gov. Bruce Rauner’s Illinois Republican Party has been to chip away at House Speaker Michael Madigan’s veto-proof majority.

Right now Democrats outnumber Republicans 71-47 in the House. But since at least 71 votes are required to override a veto, losing even one seat would erode some of the Democrats’ power to buck the governor.

So, while the amounts both parties are spending on targeted legislative races number in the millions, the real magic number for Republicans is simple: one.

Just one Republican win in an Illinois House election in a seat currently held by a Democrat will help make a difference, according to a top Republican strategist.

“A pick-up breaking their super majority in a presidential year when the Democrats drew the maps, it would be a very good thing,” the strategist said.

Democrats drew the district maps to their advantage in the 2010 census. But not all Democratic districts are guaranteed to go blue.

Steve Brown, spokesman for Madigan and the Illinois Democratic Party, said Republicans were after just one seat in the 2014 election, and failed.

“That was their goal two years ago, and now they’re going to pay $40 million and they still only want to get one?” Brown said. “I’m not sure what they hope to portray that as, because as anybody who has been around the Legislature knows, there really isn’t a working 3/5ths [majority],” Brown said. “It sounds like they’re trying to lower expectations.”

Brown said the Illinois House hasn’t shown that it has a “working bloc of votes.”

“On any given day, we always talk about that it’s important if you’re making big decisions that there be a bipartisan approach, and we would continue to do that and really the first number one issue heading to the speaker and what’s he’s trying to do is putting a budget together,” Brown said.

But Rauner has long said he sees the undoing of the supermajority as the only way to move forward with his favored Turnaround Agenda items.

“If the Republican caucus has a little bit of a louder voice, probably not a majority — that’s not likely, though it’s possible, we could always hope — but if they have a little bit of a stronger voice and there’s a little bit more balance, I think we have a chance to take Illinois in a very strong direction,” Rauner said on July 1 after Republicans and Democrats came together to pass a stopgap budget.

Kent Redfield, emeritus professor of political science at the University of Illinois at Springfield, said the current supermajority hasn’t been “workable,” as is evident by Democrats — such as Rep. Ken Dunkin, Rep. Jack Franks, and Rep. Mike Smiddy — who have voted against their party line on key votes, on union arbitration, child care rules and budget votes.

Dunkin was defeated by a Democratic challenger in the primary — after he voted against the party during some key votes. Franks, who was an outspoken critic of many Democratic bills, is leaving the Illinois House to run for McHenry County Board chairman.

“In theory, the Democrats in the House have had the ability to override the governor’s veto combined with the Senate. The Legislature again on paper can pass a budget or change putting in a compulsory arbitration bill for collective bargaining. The reality is, they haven’t had the votes,” Redfield said.

In the Illinois Senate, Democrats outnumber Republicans 39-20, with 36 votes needed for an override. Illinois Republicans are gunning for state Sen. Jennifer Bertino-Tarrant and Sen. Thomas Cullerton’s seats — with both parties doling out big bucks in those races.

Here’s a snapshot of key contested races to watch:

Illinois House 20th District — Michael McAuliffe, R-Chicago; Democrat Merry Marwig:

Mike McAuliffe has held the seat since 1996, making him the only Chicago Republican in the Illinois House. But Democrats thought they had a chance geographically to try to pick up another Democratic seat. McAuliffe’s 20th District covers portions of the Northwest Side, as well as the suburbs of Niles, Des Plaines, Franklin Park, Park Ridge, Rosemont and Schiller Park. McAuliffe hasn’t rattled constituents of either party too much – he’s seen as a more of an independently minded Republican. Despite big funding from Gov. Bruce Rauner, McAuliffe says he puts his constituents first, and that he’s in some cases gone against his party line. Merry Marwig, a political newcomer, helped work with the Fair Allocation in Runway Coalition to change flight patterns to reduce noise out of O’Hare International Airport. Marwig says she’s running to protect the middle class, and won’t support any income tax increases. She’s in support of a millionaire tax amendment, something Madigan has been touting for years.

Illinois House 62nd District — Rep. Sam Yingling, D-Round Lake Beach; Republican Rod Drobinski:

Republicans are hoping to pick up a seat in the 62nd District, which covers parts of Wauconda, Round Lake Beach and Grayslake in Lake County. Sam Yingling defeated Rod Drobinski, a Republican assistant state’s attorney from Wauconda, by just 959 votes in 2014. Yingling, who is criticized by Republicans for voting for Madigan’s budget, doesn’t favor new revenue but wants to restructure the way the state takes in revenue to rely less on property taxes. He says reducing the property tax burden is his first priority. Drobinski, who serves as an assistant state’s attorney in the felony gang and prosecutions Division, is opposed to new taxes and wants to find a way to cut spending and grow the economy.

Illinois House 79th District — Rep. Kate Cloonen, D-Kankakee; Republican Lindsay Parkhurst:

Kate Cloonen is vying for her third term against Republican challenger Lindsay Parkhurst. Cloonen is the founder of a small construction company and a former teacher. Parkhurst has run a general practice law office in Kankakee since 2000. This might be another tight race for Cloonen, who won by just 122 votes in the 2014 election. Republicans are gunning for her seat. There’s been some controversy stemming from accusations from both parties of voter fraud. It was enough to bring Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan to the city to make sure nothing funny was going on. And an ad Cloonen ran suggesting Parkhurst would take away Medicare and Social Security has come under fire, since a state representative would have no control over those programs. Parkhurst is a fan of Rauner’s push for term limits, and says she’d be an advocate for schools while trying to get a balanced state budget.

Illinois House 76th District — Rep. Andy Skoog, D-La Salle; Republican, Jerry Long:

Republicans are hoping to pick up this seat. Andy Skoog was appointed as state representative after incumbent Frank Mautino was chosen last year as state auditor general. Jerry Long challenged Mautino in the 2014 election, losing by just 337 votes. Ads in this campaign try to tie Skoog to Madigan, with on insinuating that Skoog was “handpicked’ by Madigan and political insiders. Skoog was chosen by Democratic Party chairmen in his district. Long has a lot of support in the area: he lost to Mautino — who’s now under investigation — by just one percentage point in 2014.

Illinois House 111th District — Rep. Daniel Beiser, D-Alton; Republican Michael Babcock:

Daniel Beiser has served in the Illinois House since 2004, but Republicans are trying to pick up his seat. Job creation is a big issue in the district, which stretches along the Mississippi River and includes Granite City and parts of Alton. Both Beiser and Michael Babcock have voiced their disdain for bailouts for Chicago. Beiser is a proponent of concealed carry, and he’s endorsed by both the National Rifle Association and the Illinois State Rifle Association. He’s also a Democrat who opposes abortion, voting against a bill that required healthcare workers provide treatment options, including abortion, regardless of their “conscience-based” objections. Babcock is a small business owner and a supervisor for Wood River Township who ran for state Senate in 2012 and lost with 41.2 percent of the vote. He’s running to try to take on Madigan’s supermajority.

Illinois Senate — Tom Cullerton, D-Villa Park; Republican Seth Lewis:

Tom Cullerton, the former Villa Park president, has represented the 23rd District in northern DuPage County since 2013. Both Cullerton and Seth Lewis, an insurance agent from Bartlett, support term limits for legislative leaders. Lewis supports Rauner’s push for pro-business reforms before a tax increase could be considered. Cullerton is credited with saving DuPage County big bucks through government consolidation efforts via a bill in 2013. That bill allowed the DuPage County Board to dissolve many of its appointed positions — which was projected to save taxpayers more than $100 million over the next 20 years. Lewis says he’s running to help incentivize the manufacturing and business sectors in Illinois.