China is about to deliver a retaliatory punch at the United States, right into the gut of Illinois farmers.
Really, though, every resident of Illinois will feel the pain if China follows through on a threat this week to impose major agricultural tariffs in response to new U.S. tariffs.
If China slaps a heavy tariff on soybean imports, 43,000 Illinois soybean farmers will scream. But so, too, will Illinois taxpayers as our state’s miserable economy takes another big hit. If China slaps a tariff on pork, some 2,000 Illinois pork farmers will howl, and so will we all.
State tax revenues will drop, revenues and profits for related businesses will take a dive, and good luck, Illinois, in clawing back to economic and fiscal health.
EDITORIAL
Illinois is the United States’ leading producer of soybeans, and China is our best customer. The Chinese buy almost 25 percent of the state’s output, about $1.75 billion in soybeans.
Last year, Illinois produced nearly 612 million bushels of soybeans, according to the Illinois Soybean Association. And about 114,000 people in Illinois have jobs thanks to that huge demand for soybeans and byproducts, such as soybean meal and biodiesel, according to the association’s marketing committee chairman, Austin Rincker.
Overall, revenues for Illinois farmers are down considerably in the last five years, in part because grain supplies have outpaced demands, but soybeans have been the exception. They have been profitable, Rincker says, “because of the demand in China.”
China’s expanding middle class also has developed a taste for much more pork. Farmers there have gone in on raising hogs, but they still can’t keep up with their nation’s demand for pork.
That’s where the U.S. — and Illinois — come in. Illinois has the nation’s fourth-largest inventory of hogs. China is Illinois’ second-best customer for pork, behind only Mexico. Hogs are fed soybean meal, which also helps to keep soybean farmers in business.
Any slowdown for Illinois farmers affects related industries. Manufacturers of agricultural equipment, such as Illinois-based John Deere, also stand to lose if China follows through with its tariffs.
And the painful hits will extend well beyond agriculture. The Boeing Company, for example, one of Chicago’s leading corporate citizens, is a target of China’s proposed tariffs.
There are few winners in a trade war, and Illinois in this war has as much or more to lose than any other state.
We can only hope President Trump will see the pain he is inflicting — not on China, but on his fellow Americans.
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