The theme of the 92nd annual Academy Awards should be: “Congratulations to us!”
Hollywood loves movies about Hollywood — and films about successful or aspiring figures in the entertainment and media worlds.
Of this year’s 20 acting nominees, 11 are playing characters with showbiz or media ties: Leo and Brad as actor and stuntman in “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Charlize and Margot as anchor and producer in “Bombshell,” Adam and Scarlett as theater director and actress in “Marriage Story,” Tom as a TV personality in “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood,” Renee as an iconic singer-actress in “Judy,” etc., etc.
Heck, even Joaquin’s madman in “Joker” dreams of becoming a standup comedian and appears on a popular late-night talk show.
Hollywood’s love affair with itself no doubt will be a contributing factor to the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences making an absolutely dreadful and wrongheaded choice for best actress, and I think you can see where I’m going with that one.
I’m also expecting the academy to make some safe and uninspired selections in a handful of other categories, to wit:
- “Little Women” will win for best costume design even though it can’t be all that hard to come up with period-piece outfits for yet another version of this oft-told tale. The most creative work in this category was from the designers on “Jojo Rabbit,” who came up with hilariously colorful outfits mocking the strutting-peacock arrogance of wannabe Nazi leaders.
- “Bombshell” will win the makeup and hair Oscar for the admittedly impressive transformation of Charlize Theron and Nicole Kidman into Megyn Kelly and Gretchen Carlson. But the makeup, in particular, in “Joker” was an integral factor in marking the title character’s descent from oddball eccentric to full-blown sociopath.
- The editing in “Parasite” was pure genius, but “Ford v Ferrari” will win because it’s easier to appreciate all those cool cuts of intense racing sequences.
On the upside, this could be one of the most unpredictable Oscars in recent memory. There’s at least a gambler’s outside chance of an upset in three of the four acting categories — and the best picture race, with a whopping nine contenders, is nearly as wide open as the Democratic presidential primary contest.
With three weeks until the Feb. 9 Oscars, here’s my look at the competition, including predictions in all 24 categories:
Best supporting actress
Nominated: Kathy Bates, “Richard Jewell,” Laura Dern, “Marriage Story,” Scarlett Johansson, “Jojo Rabbit,” Florence Pugh, “Little Women,” and Margot Robbie, “Bombshell.”
Pugh gave a breakout performance in “Little Women.” Robbie continued to burnish her already impressive resume as the emotional center of “Bombshell.” Bates took what could have been a cliched depiction of a middle-class, middle-aged American mom in “Richard Jewell” and turned it into something heartbreaking and special. Johansson did the best work of her career in “Jojo Rabbit,” striking just the right notes as a young German mother working for the resistance in World War II. But this is Dern’s year. And while it’s just my second-favorite performance in this group, the margin is razor-thin, and I’ll join all those in applauding Dern’s well-deserved moment.
Will win: Laura Dern.
Should win: Scarlett Johansson.
Best supporting actor
Nominated: Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood,” Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes,” Al Pacino, “The Irishman,” Joe Pesci, “The Irishman,” and Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.”
Talk about a Mount Rushmore of iconic names. You’d be hard-pressed to find a more star-laden group of nominees in any acting category this century.
One could make the case for any of these performances taking the gold, but I think it’s a two-man race between Pesci and Pitt. I found Pesci’s chilling, low-key performance in “The Irishman” to be at least as impressive as his far more volatile gangster performances in “Goodfellas” and “Casino,” but Pitt did career-best work in “OUTIH.” The extended sequence at the Spahn Ranch was my favorite scene in any movie last year.
Will win: Brad Pitt.
Should win: Brad Pitt.
Best actress
Nominated: Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet,” Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story,” Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women,” Charlize Theron, “Bombshell,” and Renée Zellweger, “Judy.”
There’s no denying the effort and energy that Zellweger poured into her portrayal of Judy Garland in a hokey, overwrought biopic — but I still think it was more impersonation than full performance.
Doesn’t matter. Just as Rami Malek was the preordained best actor winner last year for the even cornier and cheesier Freddy Mercury biopic “Bohemian Rhapsody,” Zellweger is the biggest favorite, by far, in any major category this year.
Will win: Renee Zellweger.
Should win: Charlize Theron.
Best actor
Nominated: Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory,” Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Adam Driver, “Marriage Story,” Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker,” and Jonathan Pryce, “The Two Popes.”
DiCaprio was so funny and vulnerable and touching in “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” but he’s already got a gold trophy for “The Revenant.” Banderas in “Pain and Glory” and Pryce in “The Two Popes” fall into the time-honored category of “fine performances by beloved actors with no real chance of winning.”
Driver solidified his standing as arguably the most in-demand actor of his generation with his scalding and raw work in “Marriage Story” — but his Oscar moment will come another day.
Joker wins the hand.
Will win: Joaquin Phoenix.
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix.
Best picture
Nominated: “Ford v Ferrari,” “The Irishman,” “Jojo Rabbit,” “Joker,” “Little Women,” “Marriage Story,” “1917,” “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” “Parasite.”
This stellar list of nominees reflects the overall strength of 2019 as arguably the best year of the decade for movies. It wouldn’t be an outrage if ANY of these titles took the crown — though I’d say “Ford v. Ferrari,” “Jojo Rabbit,” “Little Women,” “Marriage Story” and “Joker” are the relative longshots.
I think it comes down to “1917” vs. “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.” (The academy will reward “Parasite” in the International Film category, and there’s probably too much old-school resentment of Netflix for “The Irishman.”) Don’t be surprised if “1917,” one of the best films ever made about World War I, comes on top, as the academy loves these types of serious, prestige projects.
But not quite as much as they love those movies about themselves.
Will win: “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.”
Should win: A four-way tie between “OUATIH,” “The Irishman,” “1917” and “Parasite.”
The rest of my predictions:
Best director
Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite.”
Adapted screenplay
“Little Women.”
Original screenplay
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.”
Cinematography
“1917.”
Costume Design
“Little Women.”
Editing
“Ford v Ferrari.”
Makeup and hairstyling
“Bombshell.”
Original score
“1917.”
Original Song
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from “Rocketman.”
Production design
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
Sound editing
“1917.”
Sound mixing
“1917.”
Visual effects
“Avengers: Endgame.”
Animated feature
“Toy Story 4.”
Documentary
“American Factory.”
International film
“Parasite.”
Animated short
“Hair Love.”
Documentary short
“Learning to Skateboard.”
Live action short
“A Sister.”
