Chicago is set to have a warmer, drier winter, according to the latest reports from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The NOAA’s Winter Outlook, released Thursday, says the National Weather Service is expecting warmer weather and less snow overall for the city.
The report gave Chicago and its surrounding areas a 33-50% chance of seeing warmer-than-usual temperatures, with areas closer to the lake having a higher probability of unseasonably warm weather, or above the average 28.1 degrees, according to the report.
Much of the northern half of the country is also set to see a warmer winter.
It also predicts the Chicagoland area has a 33-40% chance to see less than its usual amount of precipitation, though the rest of Illinois is set to see something closer to the average six inches of precipitation, according to the report. The southern half of the country, specifically Florida and surrounding southeastern states, are expected to get more.
However, this doesn’t mean cold days or large snowfalls won’t occur, just that they are likely to be less frequent.
Last year’s prediction from the NOAA saw just northwest Illinois with lower temperatures, though the entire state saw overall warmer weather for the winter season. The winter outlook for 2022 also predicted increased precipitation for the whole state, which portions of the north and south did, though central Illinois stayed closer to the average.
Part of the reason is El Niño — a natural weather pattern coming off the Pacific Ocean due to warmer water surface temperatures — blowing through for the first time in four years after emerging in June, though it doesn’t affect much of the U.S. until later in the year. On average, El Niño occurs every four to seven years.
The group anticipates it may last until March or even May for parts of the Northern Hemisphere, according to another recent NOAA report.
While most of the state has been spared from drought conditions this year, according to the agency, some western parts of central Illinois are expected to see drought relief from El Niño.
The three-month outlooks are released monthly, with the next set to be released Nov. 16. The report is slated to include the new Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index, which was created to show the “potential societal impacts” of winter storms about a week in advance.
