With the odds already heavily in favor of the Bears making the playoffs, thanks to a white-knuckled 4-1 start, and some of his offseason moves working out better than expected, general manager Ryan Pace might have done just enough to fend off his firing for another year.
Nobody thinks the Bears are a Super Bowl contender, but that almost certainly wasn’t the bar chairman George McCaskey set for this season. McCaskey talked about the Super Bowl being the goal every year, but he didn’t specify his expectations for Pace and coach Matt Nagy if they want to keep their jobs.
He didn’t have to. For a franchise that has gone to the playoffs only five times in this millennium — the quarterback they just beat Thursday, the Buccaneers’ Tom Brady, is seeking his 18th trip during the same span — making the postseason almost certainly will be sufficient.
So for Pace, who has gotten more leeway from the Bears than a lot of teams would’ve given their GM after missing on multiple first-round picks and going 34-46 in his first five seasons, the early returns on his offseason are promising.
Here’s how some of his moves have worked out so far:
Fixing the quarterback issue
This one has been a flop so far. While the Bears couldn’t continue with Mitch Trubisky — and it had to be a tough concession for Pace after trading up to draft him No. 2 overall in 2017 — Nick Foles hasn’t been a substantial upgrade and isn’t the answer for 2021.
Foles has been erratic his entire career, running the unprecedented path of winning Super Bowl MVP and being benched by the Jaguars, and his first steps with the Bears have been a continuation. As good as he looked rallying them to victory against the Falcons, he has been nothing but shaky in the two games since.
Restoring the pass rush
Having an elite pass rush is Pace’s top priority, even ahead of quarterback play, and he went all out by cutting Leonard Floyd and signing Robert Quinn to a five-year, $70 million contract. More than one-quarter of the team’s payroll is invested in Quinn, Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks.
It’s no coincidence that Quinn logged his most extensive playing time of the season Thursday and that the Bears’ pass rush was at its best. NFL NextGen stats showed they pressured Brady on 43% of his drop-backs, the most duress he has faced since 2017. Mack had six pressures and two sacks, thanks in large part to Quinn playing 58% of the snaps and getting five pressures.
If those two and Hicks stay healthy, Pace hit jackpot on this one.
Revamping tight end and safety
Pace handed out tight end contracts like leaflets during the offseason and ended up with Jimmy Graham, Demetrius Harris, Cole Kmet and J.P. Holtz. It cost the Bears quite a bit of cash (Graham will cost $16 million over two seasons) and collateral (they used their top draft pick on Kmet in the second round).
This renovation falls into the good-but-not-great category. There’s no question the Bears are far better at tight end than they were last season, but it’s an average crew at the moment. Graham has four touchdown catches but chips in only 33.8 yards per game, Harris isn’t a receiving threat and Kmet needs time.
Pace fared slightly better at safety with the signing of Tashaun Gipson, a castoff from the Texans who replaced Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. The Bears always can go with a budget-friendly option when they’ve already got Eddie Jackson, but Gipson has made a solid contribution with 28 tackles and a game-sealing interception against the Falcons. He has been good enough that he hasn’t missed a defensive snap.
Stopping the kicker drama
It looked very foolish to bet the season on Cairo Santos, who had a disastrous last three seasons, but Pace nailed it.
Santos’ only missed field goals have been from 46 and 50 yards, and he made the game-winner against the Bucs. He has been more than fine while the Bears wait for Eddy Pineiro to return.
Meshing present and future in draft
Drafting for the future is a hard test for a GM with questionable job security, but Pace did a disciplined job of balancing immediate needs and drafting players who might not peak until after he’s gone.
He found immediate-impact players in cornerback Jaylon Johnson and receiver Darnell Mooney, and Kmet has shown signs he eventually will be a factor. Most tight ends need a season to acclimate to the NFL before they break through.
Johnson has had few hiccups, and opposing quarterbacks are putting up a 63.7 passer rating when they throw his way. Mooney is already even with, if not ahead of, Anthony Miller in the receiver pecking order.
