The more coach Matt Eberflus says about quarterback Justin Fields’ injury, the more he seems to talk himself into a knot. So his new move is to do his best to avoid the topic altogether.
Eberflus said next to nothing Friday about the chances of Fields returning from a dislocated thumb on his throwing hand for the Bears’ next game, Nov. 19 against the Lions. When you consider that Fields has been throwing in practice for a week along with Eberflus’ comments Wednesday about his progress, the expectation is that he’ll be back for that game.
“All the guys that are going through [injuries] are going to be working with our [trainers] to get back, and he’s no different than anyone else,” Eberflus said. “No other update than that.”
At least he was succinct.
There’s little doubt that Fields pushed the Bears to let him play against the Panthers, but Eberflus wouldn’t even get into that.
“All the guys always push me to play,” he said. “The trainers make that decision to clear those guys medically. When they do that, then we push them on the field and see where they are, then go from there.”
Eberflus said Wednesday that Fields will spend the extra days off “ramping up” rather than letting his hand rest. He also said there hasn’t been significant swelling after his throwing sessions.
While the lowly Panthers would’ve been an ideal opponent for Fields’ first game back, it was for the best that he didn’t try to play through the injury. And backup Tyson Bagent did just enough to win 16-13 and keep the Bears from total humiliation Thursday.
The stakes have never been higher for Fields. In his effort to convince the Bears that he’s their franchise quarterback, he couldn’t afford an ugly performance — even if it was because of an injury. Everything is heavily weighted in the final stretch as the Bears evaluate him.
And Fields must clear an incredibly high bar in two ways.
First, whether it’s their own pick or Carolina’s, the Bears are headed toward prime position in the upcoming draft. At least three quarterbacks are projected to go in the top 10, and this is widely agreed upon to be a much stronger class than last year, when the Bears traded out of the No. 1 pick and committed to Fields.
But second, regardless of the alternatives available to general manager Ryan Poles, Fields would need to be persuasive enough that the Bears would treat him like a franchise quarterback contractually. To merely pick up his fifth-year option, a decision they’d need to make in the upcoming offseason, OverTheCap estimates the Bears would pay him $23.5 million.
But teams that are certain about their franchise quarterback typically negotiate an extension. The Bengals’ Joe Burrow, Chargers’ Justin Herbert and Eagles’ Jalen Hurts signed five-year extensions this year ranging from $255 million to $275 million.
That’s what quarterback clarity looks like, as opposed to a team still trying to figure it out. The Bears can’t dawdle endlessly while trying to decide if Fields is good. If they don’t know, then they pretty much have their answer. And the sooner they move on, the better.
Through those lenses, Fields is staring down an incredibly narrow path to prove himself over the last seven games. He’d have to be overwhelming for a sustained stretch, something he has never done, and even then it still would be a tough call.
So the last thing he should be doing is playing through an injury that could exacerbate his flaws. Accuracy and ball security are already concerns.
Bears quarterbacks coach Andrew Janocko said this week that when Fields is medically cleared, he’d be watching his throws closely to see if he’s game-ready.
“Is his rhythm there?” Janocko said. “What does the ball look like when it’s coming out? Is it coming out with any flap at all or is it coming out nice and smooth — and looks like him?”
So while it certainly costs Fields to miss time, it would cost him more to be out there throwing passes with “flap” on them and piling up more performances that Poles simply won’t be able to get out of his head — injury or not. Now he gets a chance to come back at full capacity instead, and when he does, he’ll face what should be a revealing test. The Bears visit the Lions next week, followed by a road game against the Vikings going into their bye week. Then they host the Lions and visit the Browns.
All of those teams have winning records and defenses in the top half of the NFL; the Browns are elite. All three are very good against the run, meaning Fields will have to beat them as a passer. If that four-game stretch goes sideways, there won’t be any way for him to make up for it.
If the Bears truly are still analyzing Fields, they need to see him at his best, and they need to see him against quality opponents. Everything seems to be in place for exactly that type of evaluation.
