Cardinals QB Kyler Murray has more control over his fate than Bears’ Justin Fields

The best way for Kyler Murray to ensure he’s the Cardinals’ quarterback of the future is to win games. The Bears’ Justin Fields doesn’t have that luxury.

The Cardinals (3-11) will run onto the Soldier Field turf Sunday as the NFL’s third-worst team. It might take only one more win to guarantee they draft outside the top two in 2024. For Murray, that’s the difference between his team considering whether to replace him — albeit at an expensive salary-cap cost — or instead drafting a receiver, likely Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison, who could be a tremendous boost to Murray’s career. In a two-quarterback draft — USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye are expected to be taken with the top picks — Murray merely needs to win enough to make sure the Cardinals draft third or later.

Fields has no such control over his fate. The Bears own the Panthers’ 2024 first-round pick, which would be No. 1 overall if the season ended today. Fields winning the last three games, at least two of which the Bears will be the favorites in, won’t change that fact.

Beating the Cardinals would keep the Cardinals in position to threaten the Panthers for the worst record. But the Bears are still an overwhelming favorite to end up with the top pick — 85%, according to ESPN analytics.

The final three games are treacherous from an evaluation standpoint. There’s a real risk of Fields providing a false positive against the Cardinals’ defense, which is the second-worst in the NFL. And Fields faring well the rest of the season also might not change the Bears’ opinion of him — at least not enough to justify passing on Williams, provided the Panthers keep losing. Fields’ biggest competition will be the Bears’ draft choice — and the team has no control over what spot it will be.

It’s hard to see what Fields could do to make himself the overwhelming choice. When he argued that he has shown improvement this year, he was right. But has he improved enough to justify receiving a contract extension worth $100 million this offseason?

The Bears’ faint playoff hopes were all but extinguished when they lost to the Browns last week. Even if they win out from here, they have about a 1-in-10 chance of being the NFC’s seventh seed. Fields vowed last week to trudge on.

“Of course, if you don’t make the playoffs, then it’s tough, because of course that’s the goal of everybody in the building,” Fields said. “At this point, no matter whether we’re already eliminated, everybody plays for each other. . . .

“One thing I don’t do, I don’t take the game for granted. I don’t know when my last game is going to be. I could get hurt, have a career-ending injury next game. Knock on wood, but that’s what the truth of the matter is.”

While the Bears decide whether to invest in a second Fields contract, the Cardinals already did that with Murray, giving him a five-year, $230.5 million deal that doesn’t kick in until next year. Since agreeing to the extension in July 2022, Murray has torn the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee and turned in a mediocre five starts this season. He has a 78.4 passer rating, which puts him 32nd among quarterbacks who have thrown more than 100 passes this year. Fields is 23rd.

The Cardinals have some wiggle room, though: If they decide to draft a quarterback in place of Murray, they’ll have the space to afford the record $46.2 million in dead-cap hit next season. Like the Bears, the Cardinals are run by a general manager who didn’t draft their quarterback.