LAS VEGAS — For Land of Lincoln college-hoops bettors, Northwestern games finishing over their totals and Illinois State tilts ending under had returned sweet recent dividends.
The windfall, though, arrived Tuesday, for those savvy enough to have foreseen Illinois State guard Johnny Kinziger’s performance at Indiana State. The 5-11 freshman from De Pere, Wisconsin, deserves an award.
He tallied 31 points to power the 18.5-point-underdog Redbirds in their 80-67 upset triumph in Terre Haute, Indiana. On the moneyline, Illinois State was +1300 in Vegas; risk $100, win $1,300 plus the C-note principal.
Kinziger’s previous career high was 14 points, and he’d been averaging 6.3. He shot 8-for-9 inside the arc, 2-for-3 beyond it and 9-for-11 at the charity stripe.
It has been a challenging season for second-year coach Ryan Pedon and the Redbirds (12-14, 6-9 Missouri Valley). Out of last weekend, nine of their previous 10 games had finished under their projected total figures.
A dip in their scoring and a rise in total projections were portents. They’d slipped from 70 and 71 points to 64, and their totals had dropped from 149.5 to 138.5 then 133, respectively, in the three games before the plummet.
At home against Belmont, the total boomed to 149. The Redbirds lost 67-60. Then the slide in which savvy punters would have cleared 7.9 units of profit by backing under in Illinois State tilts.
Kinziger fueled that game finishing over 143.5.
And into this week, over on Northwestern had delivered at a recent 10-1-1 rate. Most of those totals were in the 130s, with a 140 and 141. Note, too, that only one of the Wildcats’ seven away games have ended under.
Northwestern plays at Indiana on Sunday.
THE BET-AGAINST DEMONS
The blue elephant in this room, of course, is DePaul.
At 3-20 out of the weekend, the Blue Demons are spiraling toward their worst post-war campaign. In 1996-97, they were 3-23 in Joey Meyer’s final season.
This one has been horrendous, from a 38-point loss to Providence, in which the Friars tallied 100, to DePaul’s recent 39-point output in a debacle defeat to Seton Hall.
The only saving grace for its supporters has been getting double digits, then crossing fingers. It got 16.5 in a 74-60 loss to Butler, 18 in an 86-73 defeat to Marquette and 24 in a nail-biting 85-62 slap by Creighton.
That was the good stretch. The Demons failed to cover the other 10 times they were double-digit dogs and entered the week with a 7-15-1 ATS record, among the country’s bottom 20.
In a recent 12-game run, Da’Sean Nelson, a 6-8 senior forward out of Toledo, Ohio, tallied 10 double-digit games, averaging 15.3 points.
However, before this week, he had hit that benchmark just once in seven games, and DePaul was soundly trounced by at least double figures in each of those games.
When the best player tailspins, the speed of the downward spiral increases.
Five of those losses are owned by interim boss Matt Brady, in relief of former coach Tony Stubblefield. Good luck to Brady, the former Marist and James Madison coach, if the rest of the season is a tryout.
SALUKIS’ X-MAN
Southern Illinois has shined as one of the game’s top-15 cover teams, at 16-7-1 against the number.
Overall, the Salukis (16-9, 8-6 Missouri Valley) entered the week having dropped five of their last nine games. We, though, are only concerned with the spread and totals, and they’d covered in 11 of their previous 16.
Plus, eight of their last 11 had finished over their totals.
Southern’s Xavier Johnson, a 6-1 senior guard from Maryland, has become a national figure. Stats guru Ken Pomeroy has Purdue center Zach Edey No. 1 with 17 “Game MVP” honors, but Johnson is on his heels with 16.
Johnson leads the Salukis with team-high averages of 36.1 minutes, 23.7 points (second in the country to Denver guard Tommy Bruner’s 25.2), 6.1 assists and 1.4 steals.
TACTICS
In Western and Eastern Illinois, the Prairie State owns two of the country’s top three under squads.
(Illinois games entered the week on a fantastic 14-3 over run. We will dissect the Illini in two weeks, featuring Final Four and national-title ticket prospects.)
Western entered the week with 16 of its 21 lined games having finished under, Eastern at 15 of 21, with two pushes. Prescient backers of both positions have increased their season profits by a combined 19 units.
That, of course, is Dreamland. Anyone who caught on early and is ahead by eight or nine units should be applauded for catching the wave.
The Leathernecks entered the week with nine of their previous 11 having gone under, and in Eastern’s last 16 only two went over.
Professional bettors often seek certain situations in which to take risks, as in, “If A and B happen, then I’m playing C next Wednesday.”
Patterns and trends are anathema to them, I’ve learned, but streaks like the above-mentioned are useful.
And I am frequently a Teasin’ Fool, relishing teasing three-way parlays with an additional six points in my favor. It is astounding how often that added six-point edge saves my bacon, returning profit.
Vegas pro Bill “Krackman” Krackomberger, a native of the Bronx in New York, recently told me, “Hey, whatever it comes down to, if you cash, you cash. Don’t let anyone steer you elsewhere.”
