In Iowa, 49% of Republican caucusgoers backed someone other than Donald Trump. In the New Hampshire primary, the non-Trump vote was 46%. In South Carolina, the state’s former governor, Nikki Haley, won the backing of four in 10 voters.
Those dissenters are not enough to stop Trump. Barring some unforeseen calamity — say a major health or legal setback — the former president will be the Republican nominee for the third straight election.
But all of the headlines about Trump’s triumphs miss a crucial point: The primaries have revealed deep divisions in Republican ranks and highlighted serious weaknesses that could hobble Trump in November.
“I’m an accountant,” Haley asserted after the South Carolina vote. “I know 40% is not 50%, but I also know 40% is not some tiny group. There are huge numbers in our Republican primaries who are saying they want an alternative.”
Of course, Joe Biden has serious flaws of his own — 86% of the voters surveyed recently by ABC said he was too old to be president. And most of the Republicans who disdain Trump now will probably vote for him eventually.
But the election is likely to be very close, and if even a small fraction of the voters who abandoned Trump in the primaries fail to back him in November, they could help give Biden a second term.
“What is Nikki Haley doing?” asked The Wall Street Journal. “The answer is clear enough: demonstrating the inconvenient fact that a sizable portion of the Republican primary electorate isn’t on board with another Donald Trump nomination, no matter how inevitable it seems.”
“The very voters who support Nikki are the ones that Trump needs in the general election,” Fergus Cullen, a former New Hampshire GOP party chairman, told the Washington Post. “It’s Trump’s failure to make those people comfortable with him. ... That’s his problem, and that’s his responsibility.”
Exit polls in South Carolina pinpoint who Cullen is talking about and what matters to them. As in other states, education and income were key variables: 53% of college grads supported Haley, and voters making over $100,000 are split evenly.
The abortion issue was a critical asset for Haley, who identifies as “pro-life” but advocates for a more compassionate approach toward women faced with an unwanted pregnancy. Of those polled, 44% said they oppose a federal law banning “most or all abortions nationwide,” and three out of five of those voters backed Haley.
Haley attracted 60% of independents, 73% of moderates and liberals, and 81% of South Carolinians who accept the fact that Biden won the last election. In a particularly telling result, 17% said choosing a candidate with the “right temperament” was the most important factor in their decision, and virtually all of those voters — 96% — picked Haley.
Trump has effectively used his legal troubles to solidify his base, citing his indictments as proof the “Deep State” is out to get him — and them. But the four criminal cases and 91 felony charges lodged against Trump are hurting him with less loyal and more reality-minded voters.
After the primary, 36% of voters told exit pollsters if Trump were convicted of a crime, they would no longer consider him “fit to be president.” An almost identical number said they’d be “dissatisfied” with Trump as the nominee, and one in five said they would never vote for him in November.
Haley has hammered Trump for focusing on his core supporters, calling him a certain loser in November. “If you’re running for president, you’re supposed to be bringing people in,” she said at a campaign event. “It’s a story of addition. You don’t push people out of your club.”
The Haley campaign has given Biden forces a clear manual for undercutting Trump in the fall: Focus on better-educated, higher-income voters, often living in the suburbs, using abortion as a wedge issue and emphasizing Trump’s mercurial and dangerous personality. Repeat two of Haley’s favorite words as often as possible: Trump equals “chaos,” while voters want a “normal” leader.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom was only half-joking when he said of Haley on CNN: “I think she’s one of our better surrogates.”
All elections turn on many factors, and Biden has a large problem shoring up his own base, especially young people and voters of color. Inflation remains a persistent negative. So does the president’s age. But in losing to Trump in the primaries, Nikki Haley showed how to attack him in the general election.
Steven Roberts teaches politics and journalism at George Washington University. Gene Lyons is on vacation.
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