The analytics website FiveThirtyEight, the brainchild of stats geek Nate Silver, recently tried to get to the bottom of the performance-enhancing-drugs conundrum that has haunted baseball for years and will for decades to come.
To wit: How can we statistically adjust for obvious juicers’ power numbers and somehow level the playing field as it relates to historic baseball stats.
For instance, should Barry Bonds really be credited with 762 career home runs, no questions asked? Or should he be penalized for the big-headed doping he was involved in?
Some respondents said let the ’roid dudes live and flourish, no problem. Others said throw their stats out, ban them, lose these losers entirely.
Cutting out the ‘‘all-or-nothing extremists,’’ said the poll, run by SurveyMonkey Audience (which we’ll assume is without prejudice or doping affiliations), leads to a median vote that says all juicers’ numbers from the bulked-up 1993-2004 period should be diminished by roughly a third.
Using that as the formula to discount known steroid users’ stats during that 12-year period leads to some serious rearranging of the leaderboards, per the survey. Consider: Bonds drops from No. 1 in homers to No. 6 (588), behind Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr. and Jim Thome.
Our Cubbie pal Sammy Sosa (609 lifetime homers) goes all the way from No. 8 to No. 39 (432 homers). That puts him behind most of the great power hitters in history, which is where — if there’s a baseball God — he should be.
Our other favorite narcissist, Alex Rodriguez, No. 4 on the actual homer list (674), drops to No. 11 (548). If you ask me, that’s not nearly far enough for that clown. But let’s let the people speak.
Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro and Gary Sheffield fall like plummeting cannonballs in the re-analysis. But then, oddly, No. 15 Albert Pujols (549 homers), a big ol’ jackhammer, moves up to No. 10 (still with 549 homers). He’s not considered a juicer despite the rumors that circle any guy who is gigantic and has hit more than 40 home runs in a season six times, and is en route to doing it again at 35 (29 homers so far).
You can’t solve this mess with stats, folks. What about the ’roided-up pitchers? Can you give a batter some home runs because he played his whole career against Roger Clemens?
This is what happens when you don’t pay attention, and you don’t protect the pharmacy, MLB. Own it.
FiveThirtyEight, nice try. And thanks for the postscript: ‘‘This will never be settled and will remain a festering puncture wound to the game of baseball for generations to come.’’
Got that right.
4 newest Hall of Famers aren’t incredible bulks
The four new Baseball Hall of Fame members — Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, Pedro Martinez and Craig Biggio — are an interesting lot.
Just to look at them lined up together, posing for one of their many publicity photographs since they were voted into the Hall back in January is to see refreshing variety. On Sunday, they got their special honors during ceremonies in Cooperstown, New York.
Johnson, the fireballing left-handed pitcher, stands a gangly 6-10. Smoltz, a righty who won 213 games and saved 154, is 6-3. And the right-handed Martinez, who averaged more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings and finished his 18-year career with an ERA of 2.93, is only 5-10, 170.
Biggio, the versatile former Astros catcher and infielder — the only player in major-league history with at least 3,000 hits, 600 doubles, 400 stolen bases and 250 home runs — goes 5-11, 185.
Stairsteps to greatness. Literally.
We have no idea if any of them used steroids or other devious drugs to get where they wanted, but let’s assume they did not — none was outed by the Mitchell Report, etc. But they played during the so-called Steroid Era, and they dominated without looking like pro wrestlers or melonheads.
And that has to be a nice feeling for any so-called ‘‘normal’’ ballplayer thinking about his possibilities in this game where, as in almost every sport, the athletes just keep getting bigger and bigger. Johnson, of course, is as tall as an NBA center. And you can’t work yourself tall.
But it was not only the Big Unit’s smoking fastball that made him great. It was his control, which allowed him to lead the league in strikeouts nine times and record 100 complete games.
So here’s to you four. Nicely done. Nicely sized.
Irregular hoops tourney cuts right to the money chase
On Friday night, I visited a wild sporting event, held at DePaul’s Ray Meyer Fitness and Recreation Center on campus.
It was the regional playoffs of ‘‘The Basketball Tournament,’’ a second-year tourney that is as simplistic as it is gonzo.
Basically, quickly assembled, non-college, non-pro teams from all over the United States play each other in single-elimination games in four regions, using essentially college rules, until only one team remains.
And that team wins a million dollars.
Last year, the winning team was a contingent of former Notre Dame players, and they split $500,000. But the pot has doubled this year, with the finals in New York on Aug. 2.
TBT founder Jon Mugar, from Boston, who was sitting in the stands as the games played before him, told me he can foresee the pot climbing to maybe $20 million someday.
Nor is he in it for the short haul.
“This is a 50-year project for me,’’ he said as former Golden Domer Tim Abromaitis launched a shot over a player from Ants Alumni, a team made up of old guys from Miami, Purdue, Auburn, you name it.
“This is crazy,’’ I said to Mugar, who raised a couple million dollars to make this reality show/fantasy quest/baller’s dream come true. Nothing is certain yet, and the thing could all go to hell in a flash, but Mugar, a young guy who was a comedy writer, has the fever.
“It is crazy,’’ he agreed. He shrugged. He looked a little uptight. He finally got ESPN to televise some games this year, but future income has to come from word of mouth, social media, public acceptance and fan mania. Thus sponsors, broadcast money, etc.
“What we’re doing here is getting rid of the worst part of pro sports, the regular season,’’ he said. “Let’s cut to the chase.’’
There is some beauty in that. The NBA regular season means almost nothing, for instance. Baseball and football? All you need to do is make the wild-card slots.
Right now, TBT comp level is about mid-major in strength. But, man, will that change when word spreads that an individual can make $100,000 or more for three weeks’ work.
Players need to be at least 18 and can forget about ever being called amateurs. They need a general manager and a coach and a team — but that’s the easy part. Because you’d be amazed at how hard washed-up former college or ex-NBA players will play for honest-to-God cash.
When defending champ Notre Dame lost to the Ants team, there were no happy campers among the vanquished, including point guard Ben Hansbrough, who played for the Indiana Pacers two years ago. Bye-bye million-dollar dream.
What, I wonder, is to stop a team from hiring, say, Allen Iverson, maybe promising him $250,000 if it wins?
“Nothing,’’ Mugar said. “In fact, the Philly team tried to do exactly that, with Iverson. We don’t care what anybody does with the money.’’
The mind reels, pondering a $20 million pot, with Kobe Bryant and Kevin Garnett teamed up with a cigar-smoking Michael Jordan, killing anybody in his way.
But Mugar offered a cautionary note: “One thing I thought would be true, and is. Team always beats talent. Always.’’
Remember that, MJ.
Follow me on Twitter @RickTelander.
Email: rtelander@suntimes.com
