For the second year in a row, the Bears will be the talk of the NFL scouting combine. But the frenzied interest in what they’ll do has ramped up to an unprecedented height as general manager Ryan Poles listens to offers next week for both the No. 1 pick and current quarterback Justin Fields.
Poles was a popular man in Indianapolis last year, too, when he telegraphed that the No. 1 pick was up for sale. But he’ll be in even greater demand this time because a rare talent — USC quarterback Caleb Williams — is available at the top of this draft.
The Bears’ most likely course is to keep the pick and draft Williams, a decision that would lead them to trade Fields, but Poles certainly will enjoy hearing massive trade proposals from other general managers. They’ll try to tempt him with record-breaking offers, but Poles must prioritize his own team’s need.
“I used the phrase ‘no-brainer’ at one point in time, which maybe that was too strong, [but] I lean heavily in favor of taking Caleb Williams,” NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said Thursday. “Unless you’ve got the offer of all offers, which is a combination of picks and players that it’s literally too good to turn down. It would have to blow me away to move off of that pick.
“Caleb is not a perfect player . . . but the ability is off the charts and what he can be is something that’s extremely exciting.”
ESPN’s Mel Kiper put it succinctly: “Caleb Williams is just too doggone good.”
Ryan Pace wasn’t in nearly such an advantageous position when he drafted Fields in 2021. While Poles now has the first choice in what’s considered a loaded quarterback class, the Bears then were out of reach of any first-round quarterback at No. 20 overall. After the top three went in the first three picks, Pace traded his 2022 first-round selection to the Giants to move up and take Fields over Mac Jones.
Fields never has been to a combine — the NFL didn’t hold one in 2021 — but some teams will be evaluating him as closely as the prospects. While the Bears need an upgrade at quarterback, Fields hasn’t been a disaster like Mitch Trubisky. There will be teams who had high grades on him three years ago that believe he could be a solution to their own quarterback problems.
Fields was the No. 11 pick in his class and, at 24, should keep improving, so there will be interest. ESPN’s Adam Schefter recently floated the possibility that the Bears could get a first-round pick in exchange for Fields, though that seems unlikely. If Poles gets a second-rounder, that’ll be viewed as a success.
It would have to be a team that needs a quarterback but isn’t picking high enough to draft a good one and believes it can help him thrive in a way that the Bears couldn’t. The Commanders, Patriots, Giants and Falcons all need a quarterback but are selecting in the top eight and have good options on the table.
Poles will have a better chance swinging a deal with teams slotted in the mid-to-late first round such as the Broncos (No. 12), the Saints (No. 14), the Seahawks (No. 16), the Steelers (No. 20) or the Buccaneers (No. 26).
Logically, Poles would want offers for Fields in place by the end of the combine, which would set up a Fields trade before free agency opens March 11. That gives the Bears and their trade partner clarity. He made the trade with the Panthers last year, which brought in wide receiver DJ Moore, the week after the combine.
Regardless, Poles is in an enviable position with the Nos. 1 and 9 picks and a tradeable asset in Fields. But he still has to get this right.
Poles has made a lot of smart moves to get the Bears to a point at which they’re primed to climb out of mediocrity and into contention, yet that leap is contingent upon remedying huge, lingering deficiencies. The most important parts of any roster are quarterback and pass rusher, and the Bears still need both.
Poles could make good decisions all over the depth chart only to have them undercut by getting it wrong at quarterback. So while Williams looks like a sure thing to go No. 1, Poles and his staff need to be absolutely certain he’s better than LSU’s Jayden Daniels, for example. North Carolina’s Drake Maye and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy also are projected top-10 picks, and Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. could be first-rounders.
Poles can’t afford a miscalculation like the Panthers made last year when they took Bryce Young first only to watch C.J. Stroud go second to the Texans and dominate. The Bears already have a scar like that from Pace trading up to draft Trubisky second in 2017, then seeing the Chiefs land future three-time champion Patrick Mahomes at No. 10.
He also needs to nail the No. 9 pick. That seems to get lost in the shuffle amid all the hype over No. 1.
The Bears aren’t merely a quarterback away, no matter how good Williams might be. That No. 9 pick is extremely valuable as they target a defensive end, wide receiver or offensive tackle.
That choice is more complicated than the one at No. 1, where Williams is the clear-cut target. The Bears will be hoping as many quarterbacks as possible go in the top eight to push other premium positions back, and their options could come down to the third-best wide receiver versus the second-best offensive tackle versus the best pass rusher versus trading back to acquire more picks. That’s much harder than comparing players at the same position.
Poles and coach Matt Eberflus will be sorting through those options with two new coordinators in Shane Waldron (offense) and Eric Washington (defense). Both of them were hired last month and indicated Thursday they have a lot of catching up to do on the draft.
“This is not an exact science,” Washington said. “There’s not one aspect of the evaluation that you can point to and say, ‘OK, this is the thing that will determine whether or not a player has success at this level.’ ”
Coming off a 7-10 season with an excellent defense and several key pieces in place offensively such as Moore, tight end Cole Kmet and right tackle Darnell Wright, Poles is armed with ultra-valuable draft capital and the third-most salary-cap space in the NFL.
The advantages have rarely been greater for the Bears. But the stakes have rarely been higher.
