With USC’s Caleb Williams declaring for the 2024 NFL Draft this week, it officially presented the Bears with an intriguing decision — Williams or Justin Fields — and a golden opportunity to draft what could be a transformational, if not generational quarterback.
That opportunity comes with two caveats — the Bears’ history of maximizing first-round quarterbacks is dubious, and the history of quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall is shaky.
The Bears’ history of offensive ineptitude and quarterback development is well-documented. They’ve finished in the bottom half of the NFL in scoring 24 times in the last 31 seasons since firing Mike Ditka in 1992. They’ve been in the top 10 just four times in that span. They’ve been in the bottom 10 eight times in the last 10 seasons.
And No. 1 overall picks are historically hit-and-miss, relative to expectations. In the last 20 years, the list includes Andrew Luck, Joe Burrow, Eli Manning, Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford, but also Jameis Winston, Sam Bradford and JaMarcus Russell, with a lot of good-but-not-great quarterbacks in between.
But with their arrow already pointing up heading into the 2024 season, the Bears don’t fit the profile of most teams with the No. 1 overall pick — the worst team in the league that forces a savior quarterback to start with one hand tied behind his back.
On the contrary, you can argue that relative to teams that get the No. 1 overall pick, the Bears are actually a pretty good landing spot. They were 7-10 last season, went 5-3 in the second half and weren’t eliminated from playoff contention until Week 17.
The catch is that Fields was a big part of the Bears’ offensive production last season. He accounted for 3,219 total yards and 20 touchdowns. So the fact that the Bears are the highest-ranked team in points scored (18th) to have the No. 1 overall pick since the 2004 Chargers might be misleading.
But not totally misleading. Even without Fields, the Bears were 10th in the NFL in non-quarterback rushing yards last season, led by Khalil Herbert’s 611 yards on 132 carries (4.6 average) in 12 games. Their offensive line, while hardly proven, has a strong foundation with rookie right tackle Darnell Wright and left guard Teven Jenkins both Pro Bowl-caliber anchors.
And DJ Moore in his prime and coming off a career-best 1,364 receiving yards, 80.2 yards per game and eight touchdowns, ranks with the Buccaneers’ Mike Evans in 2014 as the best incumbent receiver on a team with the No. 1 pick since Carolina’s Steve Smith when the Panthers took Cam Newton in 2011.
The Bears’ defense also differentiates them from most teams with the No. 1 overall pick. The Bears were 20th in points allowed and 12th in yards allowed last season but finished strong. Over the last nine games — more than half the season — the Bears were tied for sixth in the NFL in points allowed, ninth in yards allowed and tied for third in takeaways.
Before last season, when the Panthers were 19th in points allowed, the team with the No. 1 pick was 31st, 25th, 26th, 31st, 13th, 25th, 28th and 26th in scoring defense, with the 2016 Rams (who drafted Jared Goff) the lone team not in the bottom 10.
The Bears established playmakers at all three levels last season, with defensive end Montez Sweat, linebackers T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds and All-Pro cornerback Jaylon Johnson.
The Bears have holes to fill, or at least solidify, at edge rusher, center, left tackle, wide receiver and safety. Their depth is shaky. And, of course, they’ll have a new offensive coordinator in 2024.
But this is unlikely to be a team that will drag a rookie quarterback down if the Bears acquire one with the No. 1 pick. History might be against them. But the current state of the Bears is not.
