Cubs expecting hitters to take steps forward, but that alone won't replace Cody Bellinger

MESA, Ariz. — With the Cubs’ first official full-squad workout scheduled for Monday, talk around camp has been optimistic. That’s almost always the case when a team is coming to terms with the possibility that it won’t make any more major additions before Opening Day.

‘‘We struggled in September and fell a game short with a team that I feel like probably should have been in the postseason,’’ president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said at the start of camp. ‘‘And I think we’ve added some really good players this winter. I do think that we have a lot of young players and some young veteran players that have a chance to take real steps forward.’’

Still, it’s hard to argue definitively that this version of the Cubs’ roster is better than the one that ended last season.

The Cubs did bolster the pitching side. Though they had to replace right-hander Marcus Stroman in the rotation, he was hurt for much of the second half of last season, and left-hander Shota Imanaga is a promising addition. The bullpen, which was relatively green last season, should benefit from more experience and the offseason signing of veteran Hector Neris.

On offense, however, the front office hasn’t replaced the production center fielder Cody Bellinger provided last season.

‘‘Winning is about preventing runs, and it’s about scoring runs,’’ manager Craig Counsell said when asked about offensive projections. ‘‘You’ve got to consider all of it when you figure that out. [Which] players do more, you can never tell. But we have enough offense to win a whole bunch of games.’’

How many is a whole bunch?

Win projections always miss something. Last year, preseason projections didn’t take into account just how productive Bellinger would be in a season that earned him National League Comeback Player of the Year honors. But team-building is all theoretical until the group steps onto the field.

Hoyer isn’t just blowing smoke when he says the Cubs have a lot of players who could step forward. Second baseman Nico Hoerner has talked about targeting power as a potential area of improvement in his game. Utility player Christopher Morel has improved each season in the big leagues.

Last season was one of left fielder Ian Happ’s best in terms of getting on base, but his batting average was down, giving him room for growth. Right fielder Seiya Suzuki now has two years of major-league experience and finished 2023 on a high note.

This also isn’t the first time external help versus internal improvement has come up since the end of last season. When asked at the winter meetings about replacing Bellinger’s offense, Hoyer said: ‘‘We definitely need to look at upgrades, especially against right-handed pitching.

‘‘When we were at our best . . . [Mike] Tauchman was leading off and getting on base, Cody was driving in runs and then [Jeimer Candelario] was a switch-hitter who was really hitting well left-handed. Cody tailed off at the end of the year a little bit, Candy was hurt, and it felt like we got sort of exposed a little bit offensively.’’

In the months since those comments, the Cubs acquired left-handed hitter Michael Busch, 26, in a trade with the Dodgers. He, too, has potential for growth after playing in only 27 big-league games last season and winning 2023 Pacific Coast League MVP honors for his time in Triple-A. But his addition, while promising, certainly doesn’t offset the losses of Candelario and Bellinger.

Other hitters’ improvements might help chip away at the gap. But just as some players are bound to outperform projections, some are bound to underperform.

Bringing in a big-name free-agent hitter, such as Bellinger, would be a safer bet. But the Cubs (and the rest of the majors) are locked in a staring contest with super-agent Scott Boras. The Cubs aren’t expected to adjust their budget, although they won’t let that specific number get out.

Regardless of how Bellinger’s free agency plays out, the Cubs might add more players this spring. Hoyer said the front office is ‘‘in contact with different free agents’’ every day. But as the team gushes about internal growth, it’s sending the message it isn’t
desperate.