Is Chicago's tepid turnout a ‘warning sign’ for President Joe Biden in November?

Complete coverage of the local and national primary and general election, including results, analysis and voter resources to keep Chicago voters informed.

The city tasked with hosting the nation’s top Democrats in August for the Democratic National Convention and ramping up enthusiasm for another Joe Biden presidency on Tuesday recorded its worst voter turnout for a presidential primary in at least 80 years.

Just 22% of Chicago’s 1,509,544 voters went to the polls or cast mail-in ballots in the presidential primary election, which also included the Democratic primary for Cook County state’s attorney, the city’s referendum to generate revenue to combat homelessness, and congressional and state legislative primaries.

Whether that’s a sign of apathy or dissatisfaction, Biden campaign surrogate Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Democratic National Convention Committee officials are downplaying the significance of the city’s lack of voter interest in a presidential primary race that was already predetermined.

But others see it as a warning sign for Biden in key Democratic cities.

“Illinois is a state that has apparatus and really has deep roots in the community. I think they just weren’t turned on for this election, but it’s a warning sign to other places,” said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who has worked for Biden.

“It’s a warning sign for Detroit, where it will matter. It’s a warning sign for Philadelphia and Pittsburgh,” Lake continued. “There’s a lot of places with active Democratic mayors that this is a warning sign. They need resources. They need help developing grassroots connections now.”

Lake said turnout among young voters and voters of color is a big concern for Democrats — and for Biden specifically.

“These cities need to be engines of turnout,” Lake said. “These mayors are sitting on often a very dissatisfied populace, which certainly Chicago is, and a very cynical populace, and I think that we’re going to have to work really hard with the mayors and with the city officials to get turnout up in the cities.”

State Rep. Kelly Cassidy, D-Chicago, who also serves as 49th Ward commiteeperson for the Cook County Democratic Party, said the party must dissect turnout ahead of a consequential November election.

“Are we doing a good enough job with connecting with new people moving into our areas?” Cassidy asked. “Are we doing enough around voter registration? What are we doing about engaging new blood in the party and getting people excited about being part of the party?”

“I think that’s a conversation we have to have as a body,” Cassidy said.

Max Bever, spokesman for the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners, called turnout “shockingly low,” but he attributed it to a lack of competition at the top of the ballot. So did the Cook County Democratic Party, with a spokesman offering that primary turnout in Illinois is not a good way to predict turnout in the general election.

Brian Gaines, the Arrington professor in state politics at the University of Illinois, said there is reason for Biden to worry about enthusiasm among Democratic voters, including among Black voters. But he too downplayed the significance of Chicago’s poor showing.

“General election turnout is only weakly predicted by primary election turnout, and the association has weakened over time,” Gaines said.

So far, Tuesday’s turnout beat out 2012 as the lowest in a Chicago presidential primary since 1944, the earliest presidential year for which data is available. But vote-by-mail ballots are still being counted and could help slightly boost that figure.

The low turnout, however, may not necessarily mean apathy linked to Biden. The president received 681,742 votes in Illinois on Tuesday with 86% of votes counted, according to Associated Press estimates, more than the 652,583 incumbent President Barack Obama received in the 2012 Illinois primary with all votes tabulated.

Pritzker’s campaign said the Democratic Party of Illinois is working on a coordinated field program and vote-by-mail program aimed at maximizing turnout. The Democratic governor, who helped secure the Democratic convention for Chicago and serves as an advisory board member for Biden’s campaign, will also be on the road in his capacity as a surrogate, making sure voters know the stakes of the election.

“As Gov. Pritzker has said repeatedly, this election will be the most critical one our country has faced,” Pritzker campaign spokesman Christina Amestoy said. “Voters know what’s at stake in November and, just like we saw in 2020 and 2022, they’ll do whatever it takes to make it to the polls to defeat MAGA extremism once again.”

Democratic National Convention Committee officials said voters across the country have shown motivation when the race is cast as a head-to-head battle between Biden and Trump.

They also said turnout isn’t a reflection of enthusiasm — or lack of it — for Biden’s reelection campaign

“We’re already seeing enthusiastic support from prospective delegates, volunteers, community members, and businesses across the Chicagoland area,” said convention committee spokeswoman Emily Soong, “and as we build the stage to officially nominate President Biden and Vice President Harris this August, we will continue to engage stakeholders from across the city to make this year’s convention a success.”