LAS VEGAS — Eloy’s Appendix.
A bad band name, an avant-garde flick detailing every Eloy Jimenez ailment from the perspective of the inflicted body part or what kept Tommy Lorenzo from a 5-0 sweep of his preseason home-run bets last season?
Bravo to those who picked C. The sharp sports handicapper wagered over 21.5 homers for the Sox’ Jimenez in 2023.
“Everyone knows of his injury history,” Lorenzo says. “He had managed 16 homers the previous year in fewer than 300 at-bats, so it was just a matter of him staying healthy.”
After a May 5 game in Cincinnati, the outfielder/DH underwent an appendectomy. He returned May 28 and would belt 18 dingers in 456 at-bats.
“He had his normal stuff; a groin [tweak] caused him to miss a week, a knee . . . the acute appendicitis. If he doesn’t have that, he clears [21.5]. That’s the risk with these.”
Longtime White Sox player Jose Abreu, at 36, signed with the Astros a year ago. His home-run total was 22.5. Lorenzo bet under, and Abreu smacked 18.
For this season, Lorenzo has over on 31-year-old Phillies slugger Bryce Harper’s 30.5 home-run total.
“The last time Harper played just about a full season, he’s in the mid-30s in homers,” Lorenzo says. “He absolutely hammered the ball after he came back from Tommy John [surgery] last year, and he’s still in his prime power-hitting age.”
“If he plays in 140 to 150 games, he’ll smash 30.5.”
NOT SO GOLDEN
Lorenzo is the alias of a 51-year-old Southern California resident who has been betting for more than 30 years and runs the popular “Cover the Weekend” podcast.
He is known for concise and informative reports laced with value. He confirms that baseball is his wheelhouse action, and he’s adept at earmarking over-valued aging power hitters.
Lorenzo has wagered on Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to finish under 26.5 homers, -110 at DraftKings, or risk $110 to win $100. Unless otherwise noted, the price on bets in this piece is -110.
“To me, they’re still applying ’21 or ’22 projections on Goldschmidt,” Lorenzo says. “Aging power hitters, I always like to fade at a certain time because Mother Nature catches up to them and they go sideways, unless you’re Barry Bonds.”
He projects 22 or 23 homers for Goldschmidt, who turns 37 in September.
“Asking him to hit 27 or 28 is too much. His batting average on fastballs was .241 last season, the lowest of his career. So he isn’t catching up to the fastballs as well as he did.”
BRYAN OVER ELLY
The De La Cruz duel, between Elly of the Reds and Bryan of the Marlins, is another homer-related proposition.
The Dominicans aren’t related, but DraftKings pit them against each other, with Elly at -250 to hit more than Bryan, at +200.
In 388 at-bats last season as a rookie, Elly belted 13 home runs, striking out 117 times. Lorenzo calls the shortstop’s home-run total of 21.5 “very inflated.”
“He just isn’t a power hitter. He strikes out way too much. Great American is a little park, so he’s got that going for him. I just don’t think he clears 20. Mid to high teens, at best. So Elly at -250 against Bryan, this line is way off, too.”
In 579 at-bats, Bryan, a left fielder in his third big-league season, smacked 19 homers, with 142 whiffs. Lorenzo says Elly only beats Bryan in trading-card value, pricing Elly’s gem-mint rookie card between $700 and $800.
“Elly’s contact rate is very low, and 53% of his hits are ground balls,” Lorenzo says. “He’s going to steal bases and will be exciting, but his home-run projection is inflated.
“Last season, Bryan’s power emerged in the second half. His fly-ball rate is 35%, which is good. Harper’s is 30%, and [Braves outfielder Ronald] Acuna Jr’s is 31%. At +200 with Bryan, that’s a fun one.”
NO SOX APPEAL
Supporting the White Sox, who suffered triple-digit losses in 2023 (at 61-101) for the second time in six seasons, hasn’t been fun. They’ve finished above .500 only twice in 11 years.
The Westgate SuperBook in Vegas has the White Sox win total at 62.5. Lorenzo has seen 64.5, at BetRivers. At BetMGM, in Vegas, he bet under 63.5.
“The White Sox have one of the worst batting lineups in the American League,” he says. “Their bullpen is terrible and they have all kinds of front-office upheaval. A total rebuild, so you can attack a team like that.”
At the SuperBook, the only teams with lower victory totals are the Rockies, at 59.5, and the Athletics’ 55.5.
“These books think the White Sox will fail, and I don’t disagree with them,” Lorenzo says. “[Pitcher] Dylan Cease will probably be gone before the season ends, if they get a good offer.
“And they’re 5-to-1, at the SuperBook, to have the worst record in baseball. I don’t think that’s a terrible play, either.”
MORE APPETIZERS
Lorenzo bought under the Orioles’ total of 90.5 wins.
“First reports out of camp are all these injuries,” he says. “Gunnar Henderson has an oblique [tweak] and [pitcher] Kyle Bradish has a UCL injury.”
Pitcher John Means, who had Tommy John surgery nearly two years ago, also has been shut down.
“They may still contend and make the playoffs,” Lorenzo says. “But, for me, I’ll lean under that 90.5 total.”
For AL Cy Young, Lorenzo likes Mariners starters Logan Gilbert (30-1) and George Kirby (20-1), and Tarik Skubal (30-1) of the Tigers.
Those are at the SuperBook, which has the Braves’ Max Fried at +600 for NL Cy Young. However, he’s 13-1 at DraftKings, and Lorenzo has seen 14-1 elsewhere on Fried — it pays to shop.
For AL MVP, he’s on the Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr. (25-1). To lead MLB in home runs, he favors Braves slugger Austin Riley, whom I grabbed Sunday, at the SuperBook, at 30-1.
Finally, at +400 at DraftKings, Lorenzo has Diamondbacks speedster Corbin Carroll to lead the game in triples. Last year, with 80 fewer at-bats, Carroll finished one shy of Witt’s MLB-best 11.
“It depends on health, but I think Carroll will be hard to catch because, out of the left-hander’s box, he flies,” Lorenzo says. “I think it won’t be close.”
