The American League enters the 2018 MLB All-Star Game having won each of the past five years. Based on the starting lineups set for the midseason exhibition Tuesday night at Nationals Park, the National League is going to have a difficult time ending that winning streak.
MLB’s top five players in wins above replacement entering the summer break all play on the AL side. The top performers in the NL starting lineup, Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado and Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer, have each recorded 4.1 WAR this season, per FanGraphs. That’s an exceptional figure to record over 90-plus games in a season.
However, it pales in comparison to the biggest numbers posted by the AL’s superstars. You already know about the statistical wunderkind that is Mike Trout, but he’s not alone in providing the AL with an upper echelon of performance that the NL simply can’t match.
Trout is currently in a three-way tie for first place in the AL at 6.5 WAR. He’s tied with two other players who will be joining him in the All-Star lineup: Indians third baseman Jose Ramirez and Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts. Those three stand out as the top performers in MLB so far this season, but they’re not alone in surpassing the NL’s stars.
Red Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale (4.9 WAR) and Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge (4.7 WAR) would also be the NL’s most productive player. The same goes for Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor (5.6 WAR), who will be coming off the bench Tuesday night. Astros third baseman Alex Bregman (4.6 WAR) is the top performer on the NL bench.
That means there are six players on the AL All-Star roster who have been better than the NL’s best player. The two worst starters set for Tuesday – Royals catcher Salvador Perez and White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu – combine for just 0.3 WAR. And yet, putting their starting lineups side-by-side, the AL still holds a sizable WAR advantage, 41-29.
If there’s any consolation, at least MLB did away with the rule that gave the All-Star victor home-field advantage in the World Series. It’s back to being a low-stakes showcase of the game’s hottest stars, not something that could actually have a meaningful impact on the postseason.
But looking at the performances of the AL’s biggest names against the NL’s biggest names entering the All-Star Game, there’s little doubt which team has the advantage. If the NL wants to win its first Midsummer Classic since 2012, it’ll have to stymie a ridiculously stacked lineup.
