For a team stuck at the bottom of its division the last two seasons, the Bears didn’t do much in the first wave of free agency to improve their chances of contending in the NFC North. They still have a massive opportunity in the draft with the Nos. 1 and 9 picks, but for now, the best thing that happened for them this week was Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins leaving for the Falcons.
Cousins has plenty of haters, certainly, but the fact is he put up a 101.2 passer rating for the Vikings over the last six seasons, and they had the 11th-best record in the NFL over that span at 66-48-1. He went 6-4 against the Bears with 15 touchdown passes, six interceptions and a 95.6 passer rating.
And if the Bears are being really optimistic, they can hope that Cousins’ departure, as well as that of top pass rusher Danielle Hunter, will set off a full-scale rebuild for the Vikings. Hey, maybe they’ll even trade star wide receiver Justin Jefferson.
Even if that happens, of course, the Bears still have to deal with the Lions and Packers atop the division. Both were in the playoffs last season — the Lions nearly made the Super Bowl — and remain well ahead of the Bears in several key aspects.
Despite having a wealth of salary-cap space, Bears general manager Ryan Poles didn’t make any moves that would vault his team ahead of those two.
His splashiest signings were running back D’Andre Swift and safety Kevin Byard on budget-friendly deals. Swift signed for $24 million over three years, while Byard got $15 million over two. Both are quality players who likely will be starters this season, but neither figures to be a game-changer.
Poles steered clear of the massive costs on top free agents at positions of need like defensive tackle Christian Wilkins (four years, $110 million from the Raiders), wide receiver Calvin Ridley (four years, $92 million from the Titans) and defensive end Jonathan Greenard (four years, $72 million from the Vikings).
The only player Poles dropped big money on was star cornerback Jaylon Johnson, who got a four-year, $76 million contract extension. He also could indirectly count defensive end Montez Sweat, for whom he traded a second-round pick last year and signed to a four-year, $98 million extension that makes him the highest-paid player on the roster this season.
But the Bears still must add to give themselves a chance, and they went into the offseason with significant needs at four premium positions: quarterback, defensive end, wide receiver and offensive tackle. Poles has major firepower with the Nos. 1 and 9 picks in the draft, but that’ll still leave some question marks on the roster.
When pressed at the NFL scouting combine last month on whether the Bears finally would be ready to contend next season, coach Matt Eberflus made no promises or declarations.
“We’re in the process of building that team right now, so we have a lot of work to do between now and [training camp],” he said. “I see it as a natural progression to our building of this franchise, and we’re certainly excited about that.”
Those vague answers wear thinner the longer the rebuild takes. They were perfectly understandable in 2022, when Poles and Eberflus were at the onset of sweeping out the mess Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy left them, but they’ve now expired. Wins and playoff success are the only currency at this point.
Meanwhile, the reigning NFC North champion Lions also barely did a thing in free agency, but why would they? They went 12-5 to win the North last season, their team still is relatively young, they have a long-term quarterback in Jared Goff, their salary-cap situation is fine and they’ve got a pick in each of the first three rounds at Nos. 29, 61 and 71.
The Lions should be basically the same team as they were last season, which is a good thing for them.
The Packers were the most active team in the division and seized on what they believe is an upgrade by signing ex-Raiders running back Josh Jacobs for $48 million over four years, making him the fifth-highest-paid player at his position, and cutting Aaron Jones. The Vikings, by the way, quickly scooped up Jones.
The Packers are an example of how different roster-building is when the quarterback question is answered. They’ve got a difference-maker in Jordan Love, so now the task each offseason is to surround him with as much talent as they can afford and try to put together a viable defense.
It’s the same game the Chiefs, Bengals, Ravens and others play, and it’s a lot different than what the Bears have been doing and will continue to do: Try to get the other 21 starting spots perfect and hope that’s enough for Mitch Trubisky, Nick Foles, Andy Dalton or Justin Fields to thrive.
If Poles uses that top pick on USC star Caleb Williams and if he lives up to everyone’s projections, that would change everything about how the Bears approach free agency. And if he’s good right away, it opens an incredible opportunity to stack the roster during his cheap rookie contract.
The Packers typically aren’t big spenders in free agency, but in addition to Jacobs, they dropped $67 million over four years for former Giants safety Xavier McKinney.
They went 9-8 and won a playoff game last season, Love’s first as a starter, and that was with Love struggling through the first nine games. They expect he’ll continue on the late-season trajectory that saw him finish second in the NFL in touchdown passes and are loading up with the anticipation of challenging the Lions for the division.
Like the Lions, they’ve done all that while maintaining a good salary-cap situation and draft capital. They have five picks in the first three rounds next month.
That’s always been one of the looming challenges of Poles’ rebuild, which is now in Year 3. He can get a lot of things right, but teams like the Lions and Packers aren’t simply going to yield to the Bears. They’re trying to stay at least one step ahead of them and, even in an offseason when the Bears had tons of money available, they still are.
