Is July the month that determines everything for the 2024 Cubs?
It depends how you look at it.
Clearly, the Cubs — seven games under .500 and 11½ games out of first place — have some catching up to do if president Jed Hoyer is going to ignore the itch in his trigger finger to get rid of some key veteran pieces ahead of the July 30 trade deadline. A year ago, Hoyer said the Cubs would have to get to .500 by the deadline to be kept together and one can assume the scenario this season is similar.
First-year manager Craig Counsell doesn’t agree with looking at July through such a specific lens, though. He also makes a point of disputing that dealing veterans for prospects would necessarily signal the end of this team’s playoff chances.
“There’s still 60 games left [after the deadline],” Counsell said, “and you can play really good.”
But another way to look at July is that it might not even matter. That is to say, if these Cubs were mere pretenders in the first place, what’s a new month going to change about that?
The Cubs are in a miserable place, having lost 12 of their last 14 series — with a record of 15-29 in that time — and seven straight series on the road. The last one, in Milwaukee over the weekend, left a palpable impression of the size of the divide between the Cubs and the first-place Brewers, who can’t stop hitting grand slams and have won all nine series played at home since April.
Cubs fans had to be shaking their heads at the same old mess — a 3-for-19 weekend with runners in scoring position for a team that has been preposterously bad in those situations. The batting average with runners in scoring position is a National League-low .215, and with two outs it’s a beyond-brutal .181.
Cody Bellinger had a major baserunning blunder in Milwaukee that just kind of blended into the fabric of the team that leads the major leagues in outs made on the bases. Team home-run leader Christopher Morel is in a free fall, now batting .198. Dansby Swanson, signed by Hoyer for $177 million before last season to lead a team into a contention window, is at .217 — but not even sticking out like a sore thumb in a lineup full of blah.
“Beating ourselves up isn’t going to solve any problems,” Swanson said.
OK, but does anyone really need more time to know the score here?
“Every day is the opportunity to be a good day and the right day,” Counsell said. “If you don’t come to the field with that in mind and that frame of mind, I think you’re doing yourself and your team a disservice. You have to come with that frame of mind; it’s very important. There’s challenges every single year in every single type of season, and this is no different.”
The next 17 games until the All-Star break might not be all that much fun. First, the Phillies bring baseball’s best record to Wrigley Field starting Tuesday. Next come the Angels, who had a six-game winning streak snapped Sunday and are 15-9 over their last 24. After that, a road trip to Baltimore — the Orioles entered July atop the American League — and St. Louis, where the Cardinals have quietly had the division’s best record (12 games over .500) since May 11.
