Leave it to Dame Helen Mirren to provide a sense of perspective about “Barbie” director Greta Gerwig and star Margot Robbie being SNUBBED AND WE MUST USE THAT WORD, SNUBBED, when Oscar nominations were announced last month.
“You can’t get upset about things like that, honestly,” the Oscar winner and “Barbie” narrator told “Entertainment Tonight,” as she went on to point out “Barbie” is the highest-grossing film in Warner Bros. history.
Agree. I mean, if you’re Greta Gerwig or Margot Robbie or those they hold dearest, sure you can be upset — but that’s just it. They’ve both exhibited their usual class and grace, and hardly are out there calling for a recount or complaining that they didn’t finish in the Top 5 in their categories.
Of course, “Barbie” did snag eight Oscar nominations, and it has grossed some $1.44 billion worldwide and it became a cultural phenomenon, so I’d say “Barbie” is doing just fine, despite those two, you know, SNUBS. Also — and I say this as someone who loved all things “Barbie” and is a big fan of Gerwig and Robbie — I’m not so sure I would have voted for either artist in their respective categories. If you’re saying Greta Gerwig deserves a best director nod, who are you eliminating? Because that’s how it works: you have to eliminate someone, because even though some people might say, “This isn’t a competition,” it’s the very definition of a competition, and there’s room for only five directors. Who has to leave the room? Scorsese? Nolan? Lanthimos or Glazer or Triet?
Same thing goes in the best actress category, where the nominees are Lily Gladstone, Sandra Hüller, Carey Mulligan, Emma Stone and Annette Bening. Of course you can make the argument that Robbie’s performance was “better” than Mulligan’s work in “Maestro” or Bening’s in “Nyad,” but having seen all of the nominated performances, I’m not so sure I’d make that leap.
Ah, but that’s the fun of it, right? Rooting for our favorites, filling out our Oscar ballots, waiting to hear actors “telling the story of their outfits,” cuz that’s what they do now. You’re not supposed to ask, “Who are you wearing,” you ask to hear the story, the journey, the inspiration behind the ensemble.
Here are my predictions — not my preferences, though they often align — in the biggest categories, along with my full Oscar ballot.
Best picture
Predicted winner: “Oppenheimer”
Early speculation had this as a two-film race between “Oppenheimer” and “Killers of the Flower Moon,” but the massive box-office pull for Christopher Nolan’s film and the steady parade of pre-Oscar wins, including the BAFTA, make “Oppenheimer” the odds-on favorite. I expect “Oppenheimer” to win in at least five other categories, while Scorsese’s equally great epic might win just one Oscar or be shut out altogether.
Best director
Predicted winner: Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
For two decades now, Christopher Nolan has combined sometimes breathtaking creativity with a golden box-office touch, a rare combination that makes him one of the most popular and acclaimed and respected directors of his generation. Nolan’s writing and directing have earned him five previous nominations, but he’s never won an Oscar. That will change come March 10.
Best actress
Predicted Winner: Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
It could be argued that if Lily Gladstone had been entered in the supporting actress category, it would have been an easy win. (As we learned years ago with Anthony Hopkins’ best actor win for “The Silence of the Lambs” even though he was onscreen for all of 16 minutes, there are no set guidelines for which performances should go in which categories, and it’s more about what you do with your screen time than how MUCH screen time you have.) Even though Leonardo DiCaprio has more screen time in “Killers of the Flower Moon” than Gladstone, she’s giving a lead performance and quietly commands the moment every time we see her — but there’s a lot of momentum out there for Emma Stone’s bigger, broader, bolder, showier work in “Poor Things” (which I also loved). I’m gonna stick with my original prediction and go with Gladstone.
Best actor
Predicted Winner: Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”
Of all the campaigning and promo work done by nominees — the red-carpet appearances and the late-night talk show appearances and the junket interviews and the awards circuit glad-handing and the luncheons and the photo ops — nothing has resonated more than Paul Giamatti celebrating his Golden Globe win at In-N-Out Burger. Not that it was a calculated stunt; that’s why people loved it, and that’s why folks love Paul Giamatti. He’s an authentic everyman who also happens to be one of the best actors on the planet, and the feeling is Giamatti will edge out Cillian Murphy and take home the Oscar. Well, first he’ll take it out for a burger, then he’ll take it home.
Best supporting actress
Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”
One of the main reasons we stuck with Giamatti’s misanthropic mess of a human being in “The Holdovers” is the fact that Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s Mary Lamb stuck with Giamatti’s Paul Hunham as a friend, and if Mary saw something in Paul, we could too. Mary is the heart and soul of this story, and Da’Vine Joy Randolph created a character whose story easily could have been the centerpiece of her own movie.
Best supporting actor
Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr.
All great respect to the other nominees, this is the easiest category of the night to call. Robert Downey Jr. checks off virtually all of the awards category boxes:
- Greatly talented actor who has never won an Oscar.
- Classic Hollywood comeback story.
- Box office favorite.
- Disappearing into a character and looking nothing like himself while delivering brilliant work portraying a real-life figure in a blockbuster historical biopic.
Expect a standing ovation and a heck of a speech.
Richard Roeper’s ballot of Oscar predictions
Best picture: “Oppenheimer”
Director: Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
Actor in a leading role: Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”
Actress in a leading role: Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Actor in a supporting role: Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”
Actress in a supporting role: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”
Original screenplay: “Anatomy of a Fall”
Adapted screenplay: “Barbie”
Animated feature: “The Boy and the Heron”
Production design: “Poor Things”
Cinematography: “Oppenheimer”
Costume design: “Poor Things”
Film editing: “Oppenheimer”
Makeup and hairstyling: “Maestro”
Sound: “Oppenheimer”
Visual effects: “Mission Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One”
Original score: “Oppenheimer”
Original song: “What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie”
Documentary: “20 Days in Mariupol”
International feature: “The Zone of Interest”
Animated short: “Letter to a Pig”
Documentary short: “The Last Repair Shop”
Live action short: “The Wonderful World of Henry Sugar”
