Chicago is on track for the warmest February on record

The recent unseasonably mild weather is amounting to what might become Chicago’s warmest February in recorded history.

Chicago’s warmest monthly average temperature for February was 39 degrees in 1882. Based on the weather so far and the latest predictions through the end of the month, this February is on track to barely top that record and reach a 39.2-degree average, according to the National Weather Service.

“This is all just speculative data, but we’re going to be very close to potentially the warmest February in Chicago recorded history,” NWS meteorologist Mark Ratzer said.

It’s also on pace for one of the driest Februaries in recorded history, with 0.10 inches of precipitation so far this month, just above the record 0.06 inches recorded in 1877, according to the weather service.

And it’s not only the groundhog Woodstock Willie who’s predicting a mild end to winter.

“At least for the near term here through the end of February and through at least the first week of March it still looks like we’re going to be milder than average,” Ratzer said.

But he warned, “we’re not done with winter yet. It’s just too early to put away the snow shovels.”

One other record has already been tied this month when Chicago’s high temperature on Feb. 9 reached 56 degrees, tying a record that has stood since 1886, according to the weather service. The warmest day so far this month was Wednesday, when the high was 63 degrees.

Climate change, in part, has caused the climatological average to trend upward over the past 30 years, NWS senior meteorologist Brett Borchardt has said.

Tyler Pasciak LaRiviere/Sun-Times

This winter, however, has proven to be on par with its expectations of being milder and drier.

“We had that one stretch there in January where we had some pretty good cold there, but it was brief, and it’s been basically warmer than average for the most part ever since then and prior to that,” Ratzer said.

The El Niño conditions across the eastern Pacific Ocean — warmer surface water temperatures — largely explain this year’s milder winter in the Chicago area and Midwest, he added.

“We went into the winter with a very strong El Niño, so climatologically that tends to impact our weather for winter time as being warmer than average and drier than average, and that’s pretty much how it turned out,” Ratzer said.

Early predictions also suggest a slight chance of “above-normal” temperatures this summer, according to the weather service’s Climate Prediction Center.

For the near future, the weather service predicts cooler temperatures Friday and Saturday into the 30s, with a chance of rain or snow Friday night. Temperatures are supposed to climb back into the 50s and potentially 60 degrees again early next week in Chicago.