Bears free-agency primer: Breaking down team needs, potential fits

Ryan Poles will be the star of the draft. The Bears general manager holds the first and ninth picks, and figures to use the former to add USC quarterback Caleb Williams.

Free agency, though, is where Poles can build the Bears into a playoff team. Two years ago at this time, Poles tore the roster down. A year ago Sunday, he laid the foundation by trading the first overall pick to the Panthers for DJ Moore, two first-round picks and two second-rounders. This year, he can put a finer point on a defense that finished the season as one of the best in the NFL and give new play-caller Shane Waldron much-needed weapons on offense.

Here’s a primer on where the Bears stand entering the start of the free agent tampering period Monday, when teams and agents can agree to contracts before the league year begins Wednesday:

Cap space

The Bears are entering free agency with the fifth-most salary cap space in the NFL, per Spotrac.com. Here’s a look at the top five:

1. Commanders $96.1 million

2. Titans $80.7 million

3. Patriots $78.5 million

4. Texans $70 million

5. Bears $57.6 million

The QB market

The Bears’ ability to trade Justin Fields will depend on where the available quarterbacks land during the first days of free agency. The Falcons, Steelers, Vikings, Buccaneers and Raiders — and, to a lesser extent, Seahawks and Broncos — all figure to explore veteran additions.

Here’s a look at three free agent quarterbacks to watch, and what their movement would mean for Fields:

1. Kirk Cousins — Cousins leaving the Vikings after six years would open up a vacancy in Minnesota — and could close one in Atlanta, the city where he’s been most closely linked this offseason. If Cousins stays in Minneapolis, Fields could go to his hometown team, the Falcons.

2. Russell Wilson — When the Broncos cut him at the start of the league year, they’ll owe him $39 million for 2024. That’d allow Wilson to take a small salary, and maybe even the league minimum, which makes him attractive to a team in need of veteran stability. The Steelers, perhaps?

3. Baker Mayfield — He’s expected to return to the Buccaneers after posting the best season of his career. If not, the Bears would be more tempted to trade Fields to the Bucs than, say, the division rival Vikings. Then again, Fields’ struggles against the Vikings might have already turned them off.

Ranking the Bears’ needs:

1. Defensive line. There are two openings on the line — Justin Jones’ former three-technique defensive tackle position and the defensive end spot opposite Montez Sweat. The Bears need to upgrade those positions to maintain their momentum.

2. Wide receiver. Beside DJ Moore, the Bears have one returning receiver who totaled more than 20 receiving yards last year: Tyler Scott. We expect Darnell Mooney and Equanimeous St. Brown to land elsewhere. The draft might be a better place to find starters.

3. Quarterback. Holding the No. 1 pick allows the Bears to upgrade the most important position in sports by drafting USC star Caleb Williams next month.

4. Offensive line. The Bears could upgrade over left tackle Braxton Jones or center Ryan Bates, whom the Bears agreed to trade for this week. Dolphins center Connor Williams is recovering from a torn ACL but would fit well.

5. Safety. It might be the easiest position in the NFL to fill, but the Bears need a veteran free safety to pair with Jaquan Brisker, whom they consider an up-and-coming star. It’s the deepest free agent class by far, with multiple Pro Bowl players available.

6. Tight end. Robert Tonyan will be remembered more for his drop against the Browns than anything else he did with his hometown team. Cole Kmet is coming off his best season.

7. Running back. Don’t be surprised to see the Bears add someone to share in the Khalil Herbert/Roschon Johnson platoon.

8. Cornerback. Giving Jaylon Johnson a contract extension locked up one of the Bears’ strongest positions. Four Bears cornerbacks were ranked in the top 80 by Pro Football Focus last year.

9. Linebacker. Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards totaled 268 tackles and seven interceptions in their first year with the Bears.

10. Specialist. Kicker Cairo Santos is back and as good as ever, while punter Trenton Gill is in need for some competition.

Bears market

Below are Bears players slated to become unrestricted free agents, restricted free agents or exclusive rights free agents. The Bears have the right of first refusal on restricted free agents and exclusive negotiating power on ERFAs.

The list includes safety Eddie Jackson and guard Cody Whitehair, who were cut last month. Included is each player’s 2023 average annual salary, according to spotrac.com. All players are UFAs unless noted:

OFFENSE

RB: D’Onta Foreman ($2M)

WR: WR Darnell Mooney ($894,263), WR Equanimeous St. Brown ($1.17M), Trent Taylor ($1.09M), ERFA Joe Reed ($870,000)

TE: Robert Tonyan ($2.65M), Marcedes Lewis ($2M)

OL: G Cody Whitehair ($10.25M), C Lucas Patrick ($4M), G Dan Feeney ($3.25M)

DEFENSE

DL: Yannick Ngakoue ($10.5M), Justin Jones ($6M), Rasheem Green ($2.5M)

LB: Dylan Cole, ($1.08M)

CB: ERFA Josh Blackwell ($870,00)

S: Eddie Jackson ($14.6M)

D-line time

Only four teams are scheduled to spend more on defensive linemen in 2024 than the Bears, and with good reason — end Montez Sweat has the fifth-highest average annual value of any end in the league. The Bears, though, still need a starting edge rusher and defensive tackle:

Here are five free agents to watch:

1. Dolphins tackle Christian Wilkins — Like Sweat, he’s a monster run defender whose pass rush has improved each year. That fits Eberflus’ ethos perfectly. The former first-round pick has played all but two games in his five-year career.

2. Vikings edge Danielle Hunter — Since 2018, only four players have more sacks than Hunter’s 62. Harming a division rival while improving your own team might be worth the overpay it’d take to lure him to Chicago.

3. Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones — He’s the best available free agent but will cost at least $30 million a year. Paired with Sweat’s contract, that’s too much money for one position group. The Chiefs don’t figure to let him go, either

4. Jets edge Bryce Huff — Amazingly, Huff had the highest PFF pass rush grade of any free agent edge rushers. He was also the one used the least frequently. The Bears would have to find him a run-stuffing partner.

5. Bills edge A.J. Epenesa — The former first-round pick started three games over the last two years — and had 13 sacks. New Bears defensive coordinator Eric Washington came from the Bills.

WR roundup

The draft class is a more exciting place to go hunting for receivers, but the top free agents are intriguing:

1. Jaguars’ Calvin Ridley: A year removed from a gambling suspension, he caught 76 balls for 1,106 yards in 2023.

2. Cardinals Marquise Brown: “Hollywood” is coming off his worst season — 51 catches for 574 yards.

3. Bills’ Gabe Davis — A pure deep threat. Davis has averaged at least 15.7 yards per catch in each of his four seasons.

4. Commanders’ Curtis Samuel — The versatile vet has 22 career touchdown catches — and seven touchdown runs.