QB decision is Bears GM Ryan Poles' moment of truth

Bears general manager Ryan Poles is on a roll and riding a wave of popularity that has many Bears fans putting a level of trust in the Bears’ GM that is rarely if ever seen at Halas Hall. And he’s earned it.

Since the most egregious misjudgment of his short tenure — trading a second-round draft pick that became the 32nd overall pick in the 2023 draft to the Steelers for wide receiver Chase Claypool in Week 9 of the 2022 season — Poles has responded with a series of deft moves that arguably have the Bears in the best position to establish a sustained run of success since the early days of the Lovie Smith era under GM Jerry Angelo. To wit, Poles:

• Traded the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft to the Panthers for a package that included wide receiver DJ Moore, the No. 9 overall pick in 2023 and the Panthers’ first-round pick in 2024. That turned into gold when the Panthers — with rookie quarterback Bryce Young and without DJ Moore — went 2-15 to give the Bears the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft.
  
• Drafted right tackle Darnell Wright with the No. 10 pick in the 2023 draft. Wright was an instant starter, the top-rated rookie offensive tackle by Pro Football Focus (for whatever that’s worth) and by the eye test looked like a potential long-term Pro Bowl quality mainstay.
  
• Acquired defensive end Montez Sweat from the Commanders for a second-round draft pick in 2024. Sweat quickly became the “multiplier” Poles envisioned, with 6.5 sacks in eight games as the Bears’ defense led the NFL in fewest points allowed (16.0) in the final eight games of the 2023 season.

• Acknowledged the Claypool error and traded Claypool to the Dolphins for a late-round draft bump in 2025 after ostensibly suspending him in Week 4 last season. (The Bears were 0-12 after acquiring Claypool and 7-7 after benching and trading him.)

• Acquired six-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Keenan Allen from the Chargers for a 2024 fourth-round draft pick (No. 110 overall). Allen turns 32 on April 27, but is coming off one of his best seasons — a career-high 108 receptions and 1,243 yards and seven touchdowns in 13 games, for a career-high 95.6 yards per game.

There’s always a catch, though and for Poles, it’s the one that has been the downfall of Bears general managers that have preceded him — he still has to get the quarterback right.

A daunting history

It’s not overstating it to say that, even with the recent series of promising personnel moves, Poles’ future very likely hinges on Caleb Williams — the presumptive No. 1 overall pick in the draft — becoming the difference-making franchise quarterback the Bears have lacked since Sid Luckman (or Jim McMahon when he was healthy).

It’s a fair measurement for success. In fact, no previous Bears GM has had the opportunity Poles has had the past two seasons — the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft that already has produced a rookie record-setter in the Texans’ C.J. Stroud; and the No. 1 overall pick again this season, with Williams considered among the best quarterback prospects in years and perhaps three other quarterbacks who will go in the top five in North Carolina’s Drake Maye, LSU’s Jayden Daniels and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy.

The Bears’ quarterback history is daunting. But Poles has some advantages that could give him an edge over his predecessors. For one thing, he’s been here before — Poles was the Chiefs’ college scouting coordinator in 2017 when they drafted Patrick Mahomes over Deshaun Watson. (Then again, Ryan Pace was a Saints’ pro personnel scout when New Orleans signed Drew Brees, but the quarterbacks he acquired as GM of the Bears were Mike Glennon, Mitch Trubisky, Nick Foles, Andy Dalton and Justin Fields, so you never know how predictive those things are.)

And his timing appears better. If Williams is the pick, Poles is getting the best prospect the Bears have drafted in the Super Bowl era (McMahon, Jim Harbaugh, Cade McNown, Rex Grossman, Trubisky, Fields).

Right player, right time?

Poles also has the Bears in better position to support a rookie quarterback than they’ve had in recent years. Trubisky’s wide receivers his rookie year in 2017 were Kendall Wright, Markus Wheaton, Josh Bellamy, Dontrelle Inman and Tre McBride. Fields’ wide receivers his rookie year in 2021 were better — Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Damiere Byrd and Marquise Goodwin. But Williams will have two premier, proven quarterback-friendly targets coming off peak seasons in Moore (96 receptions, 1,364 yards, eight touchdowns) and Allen. Plus tight end Cole Kmet is coming off his best season (73 receptions, 719 yards, six touchdowns).

There are several X-factors — particularly the offensive line and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron in his first season. But if Williams is indeed the quarterback, his timing is better than most. The Bears’ went 5-3 in their final eight games last season and coach Matt Eberflus’ defense was tied for sixth in points allowed over the final 13 games of the season. The offense should have more miss room than it had in the final years with Jay Cutler and Trubisky as the starter or through most of Fields’ tenure as the starter.

And there’s also more room for future reinforcements. The Bears have the ninth pick in this year’s draft. And next year they still have their first-round pick and two second-round picks. Usually the Bears are giving up draft capital with a new quarterback.

When the Bears traded for Cutler in 2009, they did not have first- or second-round draft picks in 2009 or 2010. After drafting Trubisky, they didn’t have a first-round pick in 2019 or 2020 (used to acquire edge rusher Khalil Mack) or a second-round pick in 2019. And when former GM Ryan Pace drafted Fields in 2021, the Bears didn’t have a first-round pick in 2022 — the cost to move up from No. 20 to No. 11 to get Fields.

Poles has put himself in a better position to succeed. But there’s always the X-factor that no general manager controls — the fickle finger of fate.

When the Bears drafted Grossman, they fortified the offense with running back Thomas Jones and proven offensive tackles John Tait and Ruben Brown. But Grossman couldn’t stay healthy, starting just four of 32 games in 2004 and 2005.

When they traded for Jay Cutler in 2009, Brian Urlacher suffered a season-ending injury in the first half of the season opener. In 2011, when the Bears were 7-3 and a serious challenger to the then-unbeaten Packers, Cutler himself suffered a season-ending injury. When the Bears loaded up the offense for Cutler in 2013 under Marc Trestman — with Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Mart Forte and Martellus Bennett — Cutler couldn’t stay healthy. And the defense fell apart, dropping from third in points allowed in 2012 under Lovie Smith to 30th in 2013.

There’s always something, it seems, that prevents the Bears from maxing out at the most important position in the game. Ryan Poles looks like he’s found a groove. He’s a 38-year-old general manager who was well-schooled in a winning organization, has the right temperament for this job, has a new-school mindset and an appreciation for today’s players and what makes them tick. And he appears to learn well.

But the next challenge — getting the quarterback right — is the biggest of his career. And perhaps more challenging than even he knows.